苹果周报：年前备货进入后期，苹果行情波动不大-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of apple futures is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the apple market is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options operations [9][61][62] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, fluctuated within a range and slightly increased overall. As of the afternoon close on February 6, 2026, the apple 2605 contract closed at 9,535 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton for the week, a rise of 0.18% [6][12] 3.1.2 Spot Price - Shandong: Packaging and shipping in Shandong's production areas were okay. Fruit farmers' sales were concentrated in third - grade and small fruits. The prices of 75 and 80 fruit farmers' first - and second - grade apples in Penglai were 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin and 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin respectively. In Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin [18] - Shaanxi: In Yan'an, customers packed and shipped their own inventory. In Weinan and Xianyang, the transactions improved. The prices of 70 and above semi - commercial apples in Luochuan were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and the prices of 70 and above general goods were 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin [23] 3.2 Production Area Situation - On February 7, 2026, the Spring Festival stocking of apples entered the final stage. Fruit farmers' transactions were mainly low - priced goods, and the transaction prices remained stable and weak. In Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu, the market conditions in different production areas varied, but generally, the prices were stable or slightly weak [24][25][26] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of February 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.1981 million tons, a decrease of 342,500 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed accelerated compared to the previous week and was higher than the same period last year. The inventory ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, and Liaoning all decreased [36][37] 3.4 Sales Area Situation - Last week, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Chalong Market in Guangdong increased significantly compared to the previous week. The average daily arrival was about 51.2 vehicles. The market was congested with vehicles, and the sales of general goods and gift boxes were slow [41] 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - Last week, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [46] 3.6 Key Fruit Market - Last week, the average wholesale price of six key fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The prices of Ya pears and bananas increased, while those of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, watermelons, and pineapples decreased [50] 3.7 Export Situation - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a month - on - month increase in exports [55] 3.8 Production Statistics - In 2025, the national apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% compared to 2024. Shaanxi, Shandong, and Gansu had production declines, while Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning had production increases [57] 3.9 Market Outlook - The decline in the production and quality of new - season apples and low inventory strongly support prices. The current focus of the market is the Spring Festival stocking. As the stocking nears the end, the packaging volume is decreasing. The inventory removal accelerated last week, and the export volume is expected to increase in the first quarter. However, the large supply of citrus fruits with low prices impacts apple consumption. Therefore, the apple futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [60][61] 3.10 Operation Strategy - The main contract of apple futures is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options operations [62][63]