研究报告：春节效应渐消退，库存产能双关注

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the boosting effect of the Spring Festival has faded, terminal stocking is winding down, inventory has significantly accumulated, the egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and egg prices still face downward pressure [8][64] - In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and the core driver focuses on the pace of capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens in production decreased by 0.54% month - on - month in January, and the lackluster chick - replenishment season since August last year will limit the increase in newly - opened laying hens. The supply - side pressure will gradually ease, and the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to turn from year - on - year increase to decrease in the second quarter of this year [8][64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with obvious contract differentiation. As of Friday's close, the main JD2603 contract was reported at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.34%; the JD2605 contract was reported at 3424 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.91% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country declined in tandem. Affected by the fading Spring Festival boosting effect and high terminal inventory, prices in the production areas continued to decline, and prices in the sales areas followed suit. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.76 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan per catty from the previous week; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [7][18] 3.1.3. Basis Situation - The basis of egg futures and spot prices narrowed from the previous high. As of last Friday, the main JD2603 contract closed at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, the spot price of eggs in the main production areas converted to the futures price was 3440 yuan per 500 kilograms, and the basis was 536 yuan per 500 kilograms [21] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - Laying Hens in Production Inventory: The inventory of laying hens in production decreased month - on - month. In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. Since August last year, the inventory has declined month by month. The newly - opened laying hens this month correspond to the chicks replenished in September last year, but the chick - replenishment season in September was lackluster, and the farming side was cautious in replenishing [27] - Old Hen Slaughter Volume: The slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample market was 641,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, the same as the previous week, and the monthly average age ranged from 473 to 497 days [30] - Production Area Shipment Volume: The shipment volume of eggs in the production areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total shipment volume of the main production area sample market was 7,180.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.10% and a year - on - year increase of 62.61% [36] 3.2.2. Demand Side - Sales Volume in Sales Areas: The sales volume in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 7,397.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38% [39] - Old Hen Slaughter Volume: The slaughter volume of old hens in slaughter enterprises decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 2.2165 million, a decrease of 38,500 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [43] - Chick Sales Volume: The sales volume of chicks increased month - on - month. Since January, with the repair of farming profits and the low - price operation of chicks, the industry's enthusiasm for replenishment has significantly increased. In January, the total sales volume of representative enterprises was 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [47] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - The egg inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory in each link increased significantly month - on - month. As of Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.47 days, an increase of 0.89 days from the previous week; the circulation - link inventory was 1.77 days, an increase of 0.98 days from the previous week, with an increase rate of 1.72% [51] 3.2.4. Egg - Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - Last week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.54 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous week, with a profit of 0.23 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 yuan per catty. The farming cost of egg - laying hens was 133.97 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 yuan per hen, and the farming profit was 19.85 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 yuan per hen [54] 3.2.5. Related Products - White - Feathered Broilers: The price of white - feathered broilers in the country decreased month - on - month. The average pre - shed price was 3.73 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% [60] - Pigs: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market continued, and the price declined weakly. The national average pig slaughter price was 12.22 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.57 yuan per kilogram from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.87% [63] 3.3. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1. Market Outlook - In the short term, the egg futures and spot markets weakened in tandem, and the main contract continued to operate weakly due to the drag of the spot market. In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and attention should be paid to the far - month contracts' expectations for capacity reduction [8][64] 3.3.2. Operation Strategies - Single - side Trading: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously monitor the pace of capacity reduction and the process of inventory reduction - Arbitrage: None - Options: None [65]