纯碱周报：供给利好难改需求弱势-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's core contradiction is that the marginal benefits on the supply side are insufficient to reverse the overall expectation of oversupply, and the demand side fails to provide effective impetus, leading to weak upward price momentum. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue the trend of bottom - building through oscillations [9][34]. - In the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to conduct range trading, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures fluctuated between 1,184 - 1,235 yuan/ton. As of the close of the white - trading session on February 6, 2026, the main contract SA2605 of soda ash futures dropped 14 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.16%, closing at 1,190 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of February 5, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 774,300 tons, a 0.88 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decline of 1.12%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 83.25%, down 0.94% from the previous value of 84.19% [7][10]. - Among them, the production of light soda ash was 360,300 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 414,000 tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 88.21%, a 0.78% decrease; the capacity utilization rate of combined - production process was 77.23%, a 2.58% increase; the overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons or more was 86.47%, a 1.85% decrease [12]. 3.2.2 Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,581,100 tons, a 20,700 - ton increase from Monday, a rise of 1.33%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 835,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 746,100 tons, an increase of 23,200 tons [8][15]. - Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 36,900 tons, a rise of 2.39%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash increased by 6,900 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash increased by 30,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory decreased by 29,770 tons, a decline of 15.85% [15]. 3.2.3 Shipment - As of February 5, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 737,400 tons, a 2.98% decrease from the previous week. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 95.23%, a 1.82 - percentage - point decrease [17]. 3.2.4 Profit - As of February 5, 2026, the theoretical profit of the combined - production process of soda ash in China was - 29 yuan/ton, a 9.43% decrease from the previous week. The price of raw - material mine salt remained stable, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upward, the cost side strengthened, while the market price of soda ash was weak and stable, resulting in a narrow decline in the profit of the combined - production process [20]. - The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process of soda ash was - 88.80 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week. The price of raw - material sea salt remained stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, the cost side strengthened slightly, and the price of soda ash was weak and stable, leading to a narrow decline in the profit of the ammonia - soda process [23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry Output - As of February 5, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 149,800 tons, a 0.79% decrease from the 29th. The weekly output of national float glass from January 30 to February 5, 2026, was 1,055,800 tons, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week and a 3.16% decrease from the same period last year [26]. 3.3.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53,064,000 weight boxes, a 500,000 - weight - box increase from the previous week, a rise of 0.95%, and a 11.77% decrease from the same period last year [29]. - The inventory days were 23.1 days, a 0.3 - day increase from the previous period [29]. 3.4 Price Changes - Various product prices showed different trends. For example, the price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal increased by 4 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; the price of some regional light and heavy soda ash decreased, and the price of float glass decreased by 1 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease [33].