首席点评：央行继续增持黄金

Report Industry Investment Ratings | Category | Cautious Bearish (Possibility) | Cautious Bullish (Possibility) | | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IM) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | Methanol | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | √ | | | Hot Rolled Coil | √ | | | Iron Ore | √ | | | Coking Coal | | √ | | Coke | | √ | | Manganese Silicon | | √ | | Ferrosilicon | | √ | | Gold | | √ | | Silver | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | [5] Core Views - The central bank continues to increase its gold holdings, and gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel after market adjustment [1][2][19] - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as Iran-US negotiations and changes in Kazakhstan's oil exports [1][3][13] - Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to factors such as tight concentrate supply and weak downstream demand [3][20] - The stock index is expected to continue its phased upward trend in February, but potential disturbances from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need to be watched out for [10] - Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized due to factors such as the central bank's monetary policy and market fluctuations [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that space will become the most economical location for deploying AI in the next three years, and AI may achieve a full digital simulation of human capabilities within this year. He also warns about the US debt problem [6] Domestic News - Fujian Province has issued an implementation opinion on promoting high-quality urban development, deploying nine key tasks [7] Industry News - At the beginning of 2026, the A-share ETF market shows a "polarized" situation, with mainstream broad-based ETFs being redeemed and thematic ETFs in certain sectors receiving capital inflows [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets | Variety | Unit | February 5 | February 6 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S&P 500 | Points | 6,798.40 | 6,932.30 | 133.90 | 1.97% | | European STOXX 50 | Points | 5,071.44 | 5,130.92 | 59.48 | 1.17% | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,948.00 | 14,807.00 | -141.00 | -0.94% | | US Dollar Index | Points | 97.96 | 97.61 | -0.35 | -0.36% | | ICE Brent Crude Continuous | US dollars/barrel | 67.32 | 68.10 | 0.78 | 1.16% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 4,776.48 | 4,966.61 | 190.13 | 3.98% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 70.90 | 77.78 | 6.88 | 9.70% | | LME Aluminum | US dollars/ton | 3,026.00 | 3,110.00 | 84.00 | 2.78% | | LME Copper | US dollars/ton | 12,855.00 | 13,060.00 | 205.00 | 1.59% | | LME Zinc | US dollars/ton | 3,298.50 | 3,383.00 | 84.50 | 2.56% | | LME Nickel | US dollars/ton | 17,060.00 | 17,235.00 | 175.00 | 1.03% | | ICE No. 11 Sugar | US cents/pound | 14.27 | 14.14 | -0.13 | -0.91% | | ICE No. 2 Cotton | US cents/pound | 61.78 | 61.07 | -0.71 | -1.15% | | CBOT Soybeans | US cents/bushel | 1,110.75 | 1,114.75 | 4.00 | 0.36% | | CBOT Soybean Meal Current Month Continuous | US dollars/short ton | 302.80 | 303.40 | 0.60 | 0.20% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Current Month Continuous | US cents/pound | 55.63 | 55.34 | -0.29 | -0.52% | | CBOT Wheat Current Month Continuous | US cents/bushel | 534.75 | 530.75 | -4.00 | -0.75% | | CBOT Corn Current Month Continuous | US cents/bushel | 435.25 | 430.75 | -4.50 | -1.03% | [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: The US stock market rose, while the domestic stock index fell. The overall situation in February is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but potential disturbances from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need to be watched out for [10] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's monetary policy and market fluctuations have led to the stabilization of treasury bond futures prices [11][12] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC night trading rose 1.83%. Iran-US negotiations and changes in Kazakhstan's oil exports have affected crude oil prices [3][13] - Methanol: Methanol night trading rose 0.67%. The operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased, and the inventory in coastal areas decreased [14] - Natural Rubber: The domestic rubber-producing areas are in the off-season, and the inventory in Qingdao is increasing. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [15] - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures closed higher at a low level. The market focuses on the expected improvement in supply and the impact of macro factors [16] - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures mainly fell. The inventory of glass production enterprises increased, and the supply of soda ash decreased slightly. The market focuses on the recovery of the real estate industry and the demand for the photovoltaic industry [17] Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals rebounded. The previous sharp fluctuations were mainly due to the nomination of the Fed chairman and capital stampede. Gold is expected to return to an upward channel in the long term [2][19] - Copper: Copper prices rose 1.39% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase [3][20] - Zinc: Zinc prices rose 0.59% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals [21] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum rose 2.74% at night. The domestic aluminum price is at a high level, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is expected to weaken during the Spring Festival [22] - Lithium Carbonate: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24] Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke continued to be weak. The inventory of steel products increased, and the demand is weak. The market focuses on the changes in iron water production, downstream inventory, and foreign coal customs clearance [25] - Steel: The steel production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand in the construction industry is weak. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [26] - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's demand for iron ore is expected to be stable. The iron ore price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [27] Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The soybean meal fluctuated strongly at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the US soybean export prospects are improving. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations [28] - Oils and Fats: The soybean oil fluctuated strongly at night, and the palm oil fell slightly. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decrease, and the soybean oil price is supported by the increase in US soybean prices. The supply expectation of rapeseed oil increases, which puts pressure on the oil price [29] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar main contract oscillated within a range. The sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the price is expected to remain low in the short term [30] - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract oscillated. The market sentiment has recovered, and the demand is still supported. The cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the direct subsidy policy [31] - Hogs: The hog market continued to oscillate weakly, with significant regional differences. The market is in a "price decline - reluctance to sell" game stage, and the hog price is expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival [32] Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC rose 2.85% on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the spot freight rate in February continued to decline. The freight rate in March is crucial, and attention should be paid to the follow-up price increase letters of shipping companies [33]