长江期货粕类油脂周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].