原油周报：地缘局势扑朔迷离，国际油价宽幅波动-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is "oscillation" [3] Core View of the Report - Geopolitical situations are complex and uncertain, leading to wide - range fluctuations in international oil prices. The short - term market is mainly driven by the Middle East geopolitical situation, while the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains in a relatively loose pattern. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate widely [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (medium - long term): EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2026 to 10,765 million barrels per day, up 139 million barrels per day from 2025. OPEC and IEA provide different data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production in December 2025 [3] - Demand (medium - long term): EIA lowers the forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and first announces the forecast for 2027. OPEC keeps the forecast for 2026 and first announces the forecast for 2027. IEA slightly raises the forecast for 2025 and 2026 [3] - Inventory (short term): As of the week ending January 30, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82%. There were also changes in Cushing crude oil inventory, refined oil inventory, and gasoline inventory [3] - Oil - producing country policies (medium - long term): OPEC's oil production decreased last month due to the obstruction of Venezuela's oil exports and the implementation of a three - month freeze on production increase by other member states. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil grade sold to Asian buyers [3] - Geopolitics (short term): The US President Trump takes diplomacy as the "primary option" in handling international affairs, and the next round of Ukraine - US - Russia tripartite talks is planned to be held soon [3] - Macro - finance (short term): As of the week ending January 24, 2026, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 209,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 24.7% [3] - Investment view: OPEC+ continues to suspend production increase in the first quarter. The long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains relatively loose, but the complex Middle East geopolitical situation is the main short - term driver. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate widely [3] - Trading strategy: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading are advised to wait and see [3] 2. Futures Market Data - Market review: This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply due to the game between the "emotional switch" of the US - Iran geopolitical situation and the reality of oversupply. As of February 6, WTI crude oil futures closed at $63.50 per barrel, down $2.24 per barrel (-3.41%); Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.10 per barrel, down $1.73 per barrel (-2.48%); SC crude oil futures closed at 465.4 yuan per barrel, down 5.4 yuan per barrel (-1.15%) [7] - Month - spread and internal - external spread: The near - month spread weakened slightly, and the internal - external spread declined slightly [10] - Forward curve: It shows a Back structure in the near - term and a Contango structure in the long - term [22] - Cracking spread: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [25][36] 3. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In December 2025, global crude oil production decreased slightly. Non - OPEC countries' production increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.215 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease. The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased [46][58][70] - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels, and Cushing inventory decreased by 743,000 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [81][90] - Demand: In the US, the implied demand for gasoline and diesel rebounded, and the refinery operating rate declined. In China, the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased, and the main refinery's gross profit decreased [108][118] - Macro - finance: US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar index rebounded [139] - CFTC positions: The speculative net long positions of WTI crude oil increased [150]