金融期货早评-20260209

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]