西南期货早间评论-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Treasury Bonds: Current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy needs strengthening. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5]. - Stock Index Futures: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up significantly, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. With the Spring Festival approaching, risk control should be emphasized, and positions can be appropriately reduced [8]. - Precious Metals: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, precious metals have risen significantly recently, and speculative sentiment has increased significantly. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): In the medium term, the price of finished steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and rebar demand is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, the market has entered the off - season of demand, and the progress of winter storage needs to be monitored. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, rebar weekly output has increased, and supply pressure has increased. Currently, rebar inventory is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory accumulation process around the Spring Festival has begun. Overall, rebar prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are not significantly different from those of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue the weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - Iron Ore: From an industrial perspective, the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore demand is at a low level. On the supply side, in 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: For coking coal, current major coal - producing areas maintain normal production rhythms, and domestic coking coal production is stable. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, future supply will decline, and coal mine shipment pressure is small. On the demand side, downstream coking enterprises purchase on demand, and intermediate - link purchasing attitudes have become more cautious. For coke, the first - round increase in the spot purchase price has been officially implemented. Coke supply remains stable; the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and coke demand is weak, putting pressure on coke prices. Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17]. - Ferroalloys: Since 2026, ferroalloy production has remained at a low level, demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. Currently, the downward space for costs at a low level is limited, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening, and manganese ore inventory is at a low level. In the short term, supply may continue to shrink. Under the conditions of low and rigid costs, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range after a pullback [20]. - Crude Oil: The negotiation between the US and Iran has encountered difficulties, and geopolitical contradictions are beneficial to crude oil prices. CFTC data shows that funds are still bullish on crude oil prices. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue [23]. - Fuel Oil: The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, which is beneficial to fuel oil prices. The rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the rebound of fuel oil prices. There is still room for fuel oil to rise [26]. - Polyolefins: In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually entering the holiday stage, and market demand will be significantly reduced. On the supply side, some suppliers who have not yet taken holidays still maintain active shipment operations [28]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [31]. - Natural Rubber: It is expected to show an oscillation trend. Due to macro black - swan events this week, gold and silver have plummeted, and the sentiment has spread to the rubber sector, causing prices to follow the overall correction of commodities. It is mainly necessary to control positions before the festival [32]. - PVC: The key to price trends and inventory reduction speed lies in the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival. If the downstream resumes work quickly and the demand for infrastructure and other projects can be effectively activated, the inventory pressure is expected to be gradually relieved. On the supply side, the PVC industry operating rate remains at a high level. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rates of downstream pipe and profile enterprises have significantly declined, and the willingness to stock up has weakened. At the cost - profit end, external - purchased calcium - carbide - method enterprises are still in deep losses, and the profits of chlor - alkali integration are also not good, and the cost end supports the price. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [34]. - Urea: It is expected to show an oscillation - and - upward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the dynamics of Indian tenders, domestic policy news, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [36]. - PX: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the PX operating rate has slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. In the short term, PX may mainly oscillate and adjust. It is necessary to participate cautiously, be vigilant against the risk of external - market crude oil fluctuations, and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [37]. - PTA: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has risen to the average level of previous years, and the room for further upward movement may be limited. PTA inventory remains at a low level. Recently, there have been few changes on the supply side, the demand side has entered the holiday mode for the Spring Festival, and the cost - end support is limited. In the short term, PTA may oscillate. It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from January to February. Considering the uncertainty of crude oil changes, it is mainly necessary to operate cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. - Ethylene Glycol: The content is the same as that of PTA, with the same analysis and suggestions [40]. - Short - Fiber: As the Spring Festival approaches, short - fiber supply shrinks, terminal - factory stocking decreases, and loom load drops to a low point. However, the low inventory of short - fiber may provide bottom support. In the short term, short - fiber still trades based on the cost - end logic. The cost support weakens, and it may follow the raw - material price. It is mainly necessary to observe cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [42]. - Bottle - Chip: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but its main logic still lies in the cost end. It is expected that bottle - chips will mainly follow the cost - end operation in the future. It is necessary to participate cautiously before the festival, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [43]. - Soda Ash: The fundamentals continue to be loose. The output has decreased slightly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Downstream glass manufacturers still mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The device operation is stable, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals show off - season characteristics, are occasionally affected by the intraday sentiment of the energy sector, lack substantial support, and should still be treated with caution [44]. - Glass: The fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. The number of production lines in operation has decreased, factory - and trader - inventories have increased. The market is mainly in a loose tone. The inventory of manufacturers is concentrated and transferred to trader inventory, and it is expected that there will still be pressure for the release of market goods after the festival. In the short term, it is driven by the energy sector, showing a slight oscillation - and - upward trend, but the sustainability is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [46]. - Caustic Soda: Supply remains at a high level. Inventory has decreased slightly due to the shipment of delivery warrants, but the absolute value is still at a high level in the same period of history. Before the festival, downstream purchases on demand, and the willingness to accept high - price caustic soda is small. The 02 contract is about to end trading, and the other contracts return to the fundamental logic. It has significant seasonal characteristics - high output, low demand, and high inventory. Recently, the energy sector has oscillated a lot, the cost expectation has increased, and the disk game has intensified. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not significantly improved, it should be treated with caution [48]. - Pulp: Inventory continues to accumulate. Domestic supply has also slightly increased. Downstream performance is divided. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption of household paper is slightly better, while other cultural and packaging paper categories are sluggish. The overall market operation is inactive, and the enthusiasm of industry players to enter the market is general. The continuous accumulation of port inventory intensifies the expectation of supply relaxation; the terminal demand is temporarily stagnant, and the market lacks a trading basis; the demand for capital repatriation before the festival causes some holders to sell at a discount. The overall support is weak, and it is expected that the pre - festival disk will have limited fluctuations [50]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price has fallen back, and the fundamentals show that the resumption time of mines in Jiangxi, China, is still uncertain, and the mine end may be in a tight - balance state. From the perspective of lithium - salt supply, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continues to decline. On the consumption side, as the holiday approaches, downstream stocking is almost over. The energy - storage sector performs prominently, the production schedules of leading energy - storage battery enterprises remain high, and the demand for power batteries has also improved. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually being reduced, and the current inventory has left the absolute high level. The short - term supply - demand mismatch provides short - term support for the price. Coupled with the frequent external geopolitical conflicts, the importance of strategic minerals is highlighted, and the market is constantly worried about the external stable supply and liquidity of lithium resources. The support for lithium carbonate is still strong, but the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control should be noted [52]. - Copper: Macroscopically, the nomination of the Fed chairman has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the re - evaluation of global capital; the risk preference in the capital market has cooled, weakening the enthusiasm for commodity allocation; the US ADP data is lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week is higher than expected and the previous value. Attention should be paid to the non - farm data. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, terminal and processing enterprises have mostly completed pre - festival stocking, and the spot - market trading has become dull. The smelting end has few maintenance plans, and with the supplement of scrap for production, the output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage, and the global visible inventory of electrolytic copper continues to rise, but the actual available quantity is relatively limited. Market sentiment has declined, and coupled with the weakening of fundamentals, copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival [53]. - Aluminum: The cost support of alumina is not strong, the operating capacity has decreased month - on - month, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and production enterprises are gradually shutting down for the Spring Festival. The inventory - accumulation amplitude of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. Although the global visible inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the absolute value is still low. Alumina is still regarded as bearish. If the output decline is significant in the near future, the price may be temporarily strong. This month, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are bearish, so as speculative funds leave the market, aluminum prices may be under pressure [56]. - Zinc: The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply (domestic zinc + imported zinc) has tightened month - on - month, and the demand - side operating rate will also reach the annual low. The traditional seasonal inventory - accumulation period is late, indicating that there is a certain resilience on the demand side. As market sentiment cools and zinc - ingot inventory accumulates, zinc prices will enter an adjustment period [58]. - Lead: Although the supply side is structurally tightened, most primary - lead enterprises and some secondary - lead enterprises will maintain production during the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the supply will be loose after the festival. The demand side shows a dull performance. Even if the lead price drops, the spot - market trading remains weak. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory of primary lead steadily accumulates. Secondary lead still has cost support, but under the influence of the supply - demand structural contradiction, the support may gradually weaken [60]. - Tin: The military conflict in the DRC continues, and there are still concerns about the stable production of the mine end. However, the recent repair of the weak US dollar has led to a decline in asset - equity prices. Fundamentally, the explosive approval in Wa State has been completed, and it is expected that the subsequent output will increase. Currently, the domestic processing fee has recovered, and the refined - tin output has stabilized. In terms of imports, the refined - tin imports from Indonesia have resumed, and the tight supply pattern has been alleviated. On the demand side, the tin downstream consumption market presents a complex picture of "pressure in traditional fields and support from emerging fields". Although the overall demand has not shown a strong rebound, it still shows a certain resilience under the structural support of artificial intelligence and new - energy fields. Under the tight supply - demand situation, the visible inventory of refined tin is further reduced, and there is support for the tin price. However, the uncertainty of US policies is relatively large, which affects trading sentiment, and the short - term volatility may increase. Risk control should be noted [62]. - Nickel: Indonesia's nickel - ore quota plan for 2026 has been adjusted down to 2.6 billion tons, still lower than last year's quota. The nickel production - cost center is expected to rise, and the policy risk in Indonesia has increased. Fundamentally, the nickel - ore price has stabilized. Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mines, and coupled with the rainy season in the Philippines, subsequent nickel - ore production and mining activities may be affected, and there is support for the ore price. In addition, the pressure from stainless steel is transmitted upwards, the losses of downstream nickel - iron plants have increased, and some high - cost nickel - iron plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. Stainless steel has entered the traditional consumption off - season, and is still restricted by the weak terminal real - estate consumption. Coupled with the still - sluggish nickel - iron trading, steel mills have a strong psychology of pressing prices, and the real - world consumption is still hard to be optimistic about. There is relatively large upward pressure. The spot trading of refined nickel has weakened, and the domestic inventory is generally stable but still at a relatively high level. Overall, primary nickel is still in an over - supply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies in the future [63]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The Malaysian palm oil has recorded a weekly decline for the first time in five weeks, affected by the weak prices of edible oils in the competing Chicago and Dalian markets. The market expects that the palm - oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decline. Domestically, China's palm - oil imports in December decreased. Palm - oil inventory is in the middle level of the same period in the past seven years. The catering industry shows certain growth. It may be possible to consider long positions after a pullback [65]. - Palm Oil: Canadian rapeseed has stopped rising for three days. Canada's rapeseed inventory has increased year - on - year. The US has issued relevant guidance on clean - fuel production tax credits. China has agreed to reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. China's rapeseed, rapeseed - oil, and rapeseed - meal imports have shown certain changes. China's rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in a relatively high or middle level of the same period in the past seven years. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [67]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The price of soybean meal has risen slightly, and the price of soybean oil has fallen. The overnight US soybean has risen slightly. The soybean - crushing volume of major oil mills has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has increased slightly