纯苯、苯乙烯周报：市场情绪退潮，纯苯苯乙烯震荡运行-20260209

Report Title - Pure Benzene & Styrene Weekly Report: Market Sentiment Ebbs, Pure Benzene and Styrene Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The styrene market sentiment fluctuates significantly, and pure benzene and styrene are running in a volatile manner. The fundamentals of styrene are improving, and the market is running strongly. The trading strategy for the single - side is bullish, but geopolitical risks need to be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The styrene - naphtha spread has widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread has reached $232. Producers have returned above the cash break - even line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Demand: As of February 2, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 312,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 188,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 101.29%, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - Inventory: As of February 2, 2026, the total inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 108,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period, a rise of 7.95%. The commercial inventory was 60,800 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 2.41%, showing a neutral trend [4]. - Basis: The styrene basis strengthened. As prices rebounded, the operating load of styrene plants recovered, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Profit: The styrene - naphtha spread widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread rose to $232. Styrene profits were significantly repaired, showing a neutral trend [4]. - Valuation: Market sentiment dropped significantly, and overseas export demand drove up prices, showing a neutral trend [4]. - Macroeconomic Policy: On the evening of February 4, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Investment View: The styrene fundamentals are improving, and the market is running strongly with a volatile trend [4]. - Trading Strategy: The single - side strategy is bullish, and geopolitical risks need to be monitored [4]. PART TWO: Pure Benzene & Styrene Fundamental Overview - Crude Oil: The negotiation between the US and Iran affects crude oil prices [6]. - Styrene: Styrene plant profits continue to expand, and the supply side is gradually recovering [16][28]. PART THREE: Polymer Demand Overview - ABS: ABS has entered the stage of active inventory reduction [52]. - PS: The production profit of PS is at a low level, and demand has entered the off - season [66]. - EPS: The price of EPS has rebounded slightly [76]. - Overseas Benzene Market: Driven by strong energy prices, the overseas benzene market has risen. However, downstream demand is under pressure, and multiple styrene plants are planned to be shut down in the first quarter. The US benzene price is lower than that in Europe, and the arbitrage window has opened. The winter storm has limited impact on supply. European pure benzene has become the global price high, about $80 higher than in the US and nearly $200 higher than in Asia. European supply is limited due to unstable plant operations. Although the cracking spread is still economically viable for extraction, rising energy costs have squeezed profits. The market is supported by short - term spot shortages, but there are concerns about future supply - demand surpluses [75]. - Asian Benzene Market: The rebound of Asian benzene is mainly driven by the improvement of the styrene industry's profitability, the recovery of production, and the resumption of exports to the US. The benzene - naphtha spread has widened to $187, supporting the economic viability of aromatic extraction. High pure benzene inventories and the widening toluene spread limit the increase, and import demand is weak. Plants such as CNOOC, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinopec Shanghai have restarted one after another, and the new cracking plant of BASF in Guangdong has been operating stably, while the short - term shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming plant has limited impact. South Korean cracking plants have shifted to naphtha raw materials, increasing the by - production of benzene. PX and TDP plants are operating stably, and supply is expected to be abundant in February. The current price difference between the US and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The overall supply - demand in the Asian benzene market is balanced, mainly supported by styrene demand [84]. - Overseas Styrene Market: The impact of the storm on the overseas styrene market was short - lived. Some plants in Texas were temporarily shut down and then restarted, with limited overall production losses. Quotes in the North American market are scarce, and the arbitrage window between the US and Europe has opened, with a spread of $69. However, US exports are limited by plant shutdown plans and logistics disruptions. Styrene in Europe has strengthened for two consecutive weeks, and the increase in styrene has significantly outperformed that of raw material benzene, with the spread widening to $200. The overall supply is stable, but short - term imports from the Middle East are restricted, and the import volume from the US and Europe in January was only about 20kt. As the spring maintenance season approaches, downstream replenishment demand has increased, and combined with the expectation of the peak season in the second quarter, market concerns about supply shortages have intensified [94]. - Phenol: The port inventory of phenol has declined rapidly [96]. - Adipic Acid: The profit and operating load of adipic acid have declined [107]. - Caprolactam: The operating load and inventory of caprolactam have increased [119]. - Home Appliances: The demand for home appliances is waiting for an increase [128]. - Asian Styrene Market: The price and economic situation of Asian styrene have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising costs. The styrene - naphtha spread has widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread has reached $232. Producers have returned above the cash break - even line. Although the market is worried that the approaching Spring Festival holiday, pressured polymer profits, and the restart of some plants will suppress demand, strong exports, short - term supply gaps caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the strong spot price. On the supply side, multiple plants are still under maintenance or shut down due to failures, and some production capacities in Taiwan, China, and Japan are planned to resume in February; Middle East supply is expected to gradually return in February, but new maintenance plans in March will limit the increase in supply. On the demand side, there is a divergence: the operation of PS and ABS downstream of styrene is stable, but the operation of EPS has declined, and high costs are squeezing polymer profits, and some manufacturers are considering production cuts or even reselling styrene raw materials [133].