集运指数欧线周报（EC）：目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: The short - term investment view is "oscillating", with the short - term short - selling cost - effectiveness decreasing, and waiting for a short - selling opportunity during the off - season rebound. The trading strategy is to short on the off - season rebound and conduct a 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current container shipping index for the European line has low trading volume, and there is limited driving force under the low - valuation situation. The spot freight rate is affected by the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period, and each alliance's quotes are adjusted differently. The political and economic situation has a neutral impact. The supply of shipping capacity shows a certain change trend, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season, with an imbalance between supply and demand. In the short - term, there is a complex pattern of short - term gaming and long - term pressure. The long - term core contradiction lies in the over - capacity [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot freight rate: Affected by the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period, the overall European line spot freight rate is in a declining trend. Each alliance's quotes are adjusted differently, with each alliance reducing prices to grab cargo volume, and the weak supply - demand reality suppresses the freight rate. Three leading shipping companies have proposed to raise the price to $3000/FEU in March [3] - Political and economic factors: The White House plans to hold a "Peace Committee" leaders' meeting on February 19, 2026, to promote the second - stage implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and raise funds for Gaza reconstruction. Trump said that the US - Iran talks in Oman were "very good" and will continue to contact next week. The US - Iran indirect nuclear negotiations were restarted on February 6, 2026 [3] - Shipping capacity supply: The weekly average shipping capacity from November 2025 to March 2026 shows different values, with a decrease in February 2026 [3] - Demand: The current demand for the container shipping European line is in a seasonal off - season, with insufficient rigid demand support and light transactions. The cargo volume at major ports in East and North China has continued to decline, and the ship companies' price cuts to stimulate demand have limited effects, and the supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged. The futures market has expectations of post - festival demand recovery, but the main contract price of the European line container shipping has been oscillating downward since February, indicating insufficient confidence in short - term demand recovery [3] - Summary: The investment in the container shipping European line shows a complex pattern of short - term gaming and long - term pressure. In the short - term, the futures market shows a contango structure, but the spot freight rate continues to decline, and the divergence between futures and spot prices intensifies the volatility. In the long - term, the core contradiction is over - capacity, and variables such as geopolitical situations and the development of the Arctic route add uncertainties [3] - Investment view and trading strategy: The short - term short - selling cost - effectiveness is decreasing, waiting for a short - selling opportunity during the off - season rebound. The trading strategy is to short on the off - season rebound and conduct a 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [3] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of the European line index, the US West line index, and the US East line index through charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI [6] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - Order volume: The report shows the order volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through charts [11] - Delivery volume: It presents the delivery volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 through charts [14] - Demolition volume: It shows the demolition volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 through charts [15] - Future delivery: It presents the future delivery volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2023 to 2029 through charts, including quarterly and seasonal data [20] - Ship - breaking price: It shows the ship - breaking price data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2019 to 2025 through charts [27] - New - building price: It presents the new - building price index and the new - building price data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 to 2024 through charts [27] - Second - hand ship price: It shows the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship price data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through charts [33] - Existing shipping capacity: It presents the existing shipping capacity data of container ships, including the total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of ship - breaking through charts [42] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - Shipping schedule: It shows the total shipping capacity deployment, the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) from Shanghai to European basic ports from week 13 to week 28 through charts [57] - Desulfurization tower installation: It presents the data of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed through charts [67] - Idle shipping capacity: It shows the idle shipping capacity data of container ships, including the total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, the proportion of idle ships, and the capacity of hot - idle and retrofitted ships through charts [75]