全球资产配置每周聚焦（20260130-20260206）：Capex计划超预期，为何美股科技反而下跌？-20260209

Market Overview - US ADP data fell short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March[3] - 10Y US Treasury yield recorded at 4.22%, down 4 basis points this week, while the dollar index rose by 0.51% to 97.6[3][19] - Global equity markets saw significant declines in A-shares, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and ChiNext Index experiencing the largest drops[3][18] Technology Sector Performance - US tech stocks underperformed, primarily due to valuation concerns, with software stocks seeing significant declines[8][10] - Static PE for software stocks currently stands at 32x, while dynamic PE is at 23x, comparable to levels seen in February 2020 and November 2022[10] - Hardware stocks also faced sell-offs, with semiconductor static and dynamic PEs at 49x and 25x, respectively[10] Capital Expenditure Insights - Despite exceeding expectations in capital expenditure (capex), concerns remain regarding the aggressive spending plans of internet companies, particularly Google and Amazon[14] - Market sentiment indicates that the growth rate of AI revenue contributions may not keep pace with rising cost expenditures, limiting support for internet valuations[14] Global Fund Flows - As of February 4, 2026, foreign capital inflows into the US market totaled $21.51 billion, while domestic capital outflows reached $54.11 billion[3] - Emerging markets saw inflows, while developed markets experienced significant capital inflows, particularly in financial, healthcare, and energy sectors[3][22] Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI showed a significant increase, while China's manufacturing PMI marginally declined due to seasonal disruptions[5] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in March is currently at 76.80%[5]