中辉农产品观点-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term volatility: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. Soymeal is affected by China's potential increase in US soybean purchases, US biodiesel expectations, and Argentina's drought; rapeseed meal sees improved import supply; rapeseed oil's tight - supply situation in South China is relieved to some extent [2][5][8]. - Short - term adjustment: For palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil lacks new stimuli and faces potential inventory pressure; soybean oil has sufficient supply and weakening spot - market trading [2][11]. - Oscillatory adjustment: For cotton. Affected by external commodity markets, the US dollar index, and domestic consumption off - season, but has long - term positive expectations [2][15]. - Pressured operation: For red dates. High - inventory de - stocking may drive short - term rebounds, but the overall pattern is supply - demand loose [2][18]. - Oscillatory weakness: For live pigs. In a weak supply - demand pattern, near - month contracts are prone to decline, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - Price data: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2735 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day; national average spot price is 3159.14 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Supply and demand: China may increase US soybean purchases, but domestic Q1 supply is sufficient. Argentina's drought persists, so be cautious about shorting [2][5]. - International situation: In 2026, Brazil's soybean export in February is estimated at 11.42 million tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; in January, it was 2.44 million tons, a record high for the same period. Argentina's farmers' new - season soybean sales pace accelerated in the fourth week of 2026 [4]. Rapeseed Meal - Price data: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day; national average spot price is 2562.63 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - Supply and demand: The first batch of Australian rapeseeds entered the press, and coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory ended the zero - state. China may purchase 3 ships of Canadian rapeseeds for April - May shipment, improving import supply [2][8]. Palm Oil - Price data: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 9026 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; national average price is 9080 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - Supply and demand: US - Iran meeting led to lower crude oil prices. Palm oil's previous positive factors have been digested, and the upcoming release of Malaysia's January inventory and large domestic February imports may cause short - term inventory pressure [2][11]. Cotton - Price data: Futures prices of various contracts (CF2603, CF2605, etc.) show declines; the spot price of CCIndex (3218B) is 16025 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.08% [12]. - Supply and demand: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey may reduce cotton planting areas and yields. Domestically, new - cotton processing is almost complete, inventory is being depleted, import pressure is realized, and demand is weakening during the off - season [13][14][15]. Red Dates - Price data: Futures prices of various contracts (CJ2603, CJ2605, etc.) decline; spot prices in various regions are mostly stable [16]. - Supply and demand: The spot market is stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 1255 tons week - on - week, and high - inventory de - stocking may drive short - term rebounds [17][18]. Live Pigs - Price data: Futures prices of various contracts (lh2603, lh2605, etc.) decline; the national average slaughter price is 12060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.50% [19]. - Supply and demand: In January, the breeding side slightly over - completed the plan. In February, the planned slaughter may decrease, but the daily - average pressure may increase. Demand is increasing before the festival, but the far - month contracts lack an upward basis due to poor capacity de - stocking [20].