中辉有色观点-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, suggesting stable and multi - allocation [1] - Silver: Bearish, not recommended for participation [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, suggesting long - term holding and short - term profit - taking [1][7] - Zinc: Neutral in the short - term, suggesting waiting for more macro guidance; bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [1][11] - Lead: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral, waiting for stabilization [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: With the decline of US inflation expectations, the market sentiment has recovered after adjustment. In the long - term, due to the reshaping of the geopolitical order and central banks' continuous gold purchases, the long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1][3] - Silver: Although there are long - term supply - demand gaps and favorable factors from global fiscal policies, short - term market adjustments continue, and the risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - term participation [1] - Copper: In the short - term, approaching the Spring Festival, market risk - aversion sentiment rises, demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and high global copper inventories suppress the upside space. In the long - term, it is still optimistic due to copper's strategic position and green demand [1][6][7] - Zinc: In the short - term, speculation enthusiasm cools down, demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival, and inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips due to potential supply challenges [1][10][11] - Aluminum: Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, alumina costs are low, domestic inventories are accumulating, and downstream开工 rates are declining, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][12][14] - Nickel: The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia has been digested, domestic high inventories and weak consumption continue, and stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][16][18] - Lithium Carbonate: Total inventories have been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, production has declined. Market sentiment has been affected, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization before layout [1][20][21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: After a significant adjustment, the prices of gold and silver rebounded on Friday, but market confidence has not been fully restored. Positions and narratives are in an unstable state [2] - Influencing Factors: US inflation expectations have declined, and the Chinese central bank has been continuously buying gold. The three pillars supporting the gold price (central bank purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty) remain stable, but the market needs time to digest volatility [3] - Strategy: Domestic gold should be observed around 1060, and silver around 19000. Gold VIX and silver VIX are still at relatively high levels, and attention should be paid to volatility reduction [4] Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded. Global copper inventories are at a high level, and downstream demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival [5][6] - Influencing Factors: Global copper mines are in short supply, and the growth of copper smelting capacity has been curbed. The output in January increased slightly year - on - year, and is expected to decline slightly in February [6] - Strategy: In the short - term, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash and be empty during the holiday. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term Shanghai copper should focus on the range of 99500 - 104000 yuan/ton, and LME copper on 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc is in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - Influencing Factors: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc ingot output increased in January, and inventories are accumulating approaching the Spring Festival. Traditional demand is weak, but emerging demand may make up for part of the gap [10] - Strategy: In the short - term, it is recommended to reduce positions and control risks, waiting for more macro guidance. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton, and LME zinc on 3250 - 3300 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina prices declined [12][13] - Influencing Factors: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventories are increasing, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, and alumina inventories are still under pressure [14][15] - Strategy: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is 22000 - 24500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices rebounded under pressure [16][17] - Influencing Factors: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. Domestic pure nickel inventories are accumulating, and downstream stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season [18] - Strategy: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is 120000 - 140000 yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went low, and recovered the 130,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [20] - Influencing Factors: The external atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is weak, and the market liquidity is insufficient. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors, and the inventory is decreasing in the off - season. The market is worried about inventory accumulation in the peak season in March [21] - Strategy: It is recommended to be empty - position mainly, with the range of 130000 - 145000 yuan/ton [22]