Soochow Securities·2026-02-09 05:59Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a warming trend in temperatures leading to a decline in gas prices in Europe and the US, while domestic gas prices remain stable [1][9] - It emphasizes the overall supply being relaxed, with domestic gas prices decreasing by 2.0% week-on-week [26] - The report suggests that the pricing mechanism is being rationalized, and demand is expected to increase [1] Price Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down 31.5%, European TTF down 11%, East Asia JKM down 3.6%, China LNG ex-factory down 2%, and China LNG CIF down 11.6% [9][10] - The report notes that the average gas consumption in Europe for the first ten months of 2025 was 349.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the US natural gas market price decreased by 31.5% week-on-week due to a high base, with storage levels at 28,230 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [14] - In Europe, gas supply decreased by 5.2% week-on-week, with a notable drop in gas-fired power generation output by 10.9% week-on-week [15] - Domestic gas consumption for 2025 is projected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 433.2 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions affecting heating gas demand [26] Pricing Progress - The report states that 68% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [40] - The report anticipates continued pricing adjustments and improvements in profitability for city gas companies [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [1] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Co. [1] - The report highlights the importance of energy independence and recommends companies with gas production capabilities, such as Shouhua Gas [1]