Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the pre - Spring Festival off - season, downstream开工率continues to decline, with some factories shutting down for holidays. Pre - holiday demand support is limited. Supply - side weekly production remains high, increasing pressure and leading to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to note that the planned maintenance volume in February and March is limited, and supply is expected to remain under high pressure. Attention should be paid to the intensity of continuous inventory transfer downward. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly within a range, with attention to the 6700 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention to the 6600 support level. The strategy is mainly to sell on rallies [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic 1.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The average price of LDPE was 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7018.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 206.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.63%. The May - September spread was - 52 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Key Data Tracking 1.2.1 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was 54 yuan/ton with a change of - 27 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton with a change of +3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 2 yuan/ton with a change of +24 yuan/ton [18] 1.2.2 Spot Price - The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in Northeast China, the price of HDPE film decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and in North China, the price of LDPE film decreased by 75 yuan/ton [19] 1.2.3 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [22] 1.2.4 Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [27] 1.2.5 Supply - This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly polyethylene production was 71.24 tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.86 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons compared to the previous week [32] 1.2.6 2026 Production Capacity Expansion Plan - Multiple companies have production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35] 1.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Petrochemical, have some production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [36] 1.2.8 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25%. The operating rate of PE pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16% [38] 1.2.9 Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.6%, which differs from the annual average by 2.9%. The data of low - pressure film differs significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.5%, which differs from the annual average by 3.7% [42] 1.2.10 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.50 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% [44] 1.2.11 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, an increase of 49 lots compared to the previous week [47] 2. PP 2.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.95% [51] 2.2 Key Data Tracking 2.2.1 Downstream Spot Price - The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP granule T30S decreased by 7 yuan compared to the previous day [55] 2.2.2 Basis - On February 6th, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (+2.13%). The PP basis closed at - 51 yuan/ton (with a change of 53 yuan/ton), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton) [57] 2.2.3 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 yuan/ton with a change of +18 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton with a change of +1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 37 yuan/ton with a change of - 19 yuan/ton [63] 2.2.4 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [66] 2.2.5 Profit - The profit of oil - based PP was - 626.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.01 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 161.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79.61 yuan/ton [71] 2.2.6 Supply - This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 73.92%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 76.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [75] 2.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical, have production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [79] 2.2.8 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of PP downstream was 49.84% (- 2.24%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 36.74% (- 5.30%), the operating rate of BOPP was 64.55% (+0.38%), the operating rate of injection molding was 53.02% (- 4.60%), and the operating rate of pipes was 33.70% (- 3.17%) [81] 2.2.9 Import and Export Profit - This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 351.35 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.62 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 46.57 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.63 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87] 2.2.10 Inventory - This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 41.58 tons (+3.72%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies increased by 14.92% compared to the previous week; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.11% compared to the previous week; the port inventory decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous week [89] 2.2.11 Inventory of Downstream Products - This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 839.78 tons, a decrease of 7.94% compared to the previous week. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.04 days, an increase of 7.66% compared to the previous week [93] 2.2.12 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17204 lots, a decrease of 32 lots compared to the previous week [97]
长江期货聚烯烃周报-20260209
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-02-09 05:50