全球市场观察：唐罗主义与经济再平衡

Global Macro Strategy - The report highlights a global economic rebalancing driven by various factors including increased fiscal expansion in the US, Japan, and Europe, and China's focus on stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption [1][2] - The US economy is expected to see GDP growth decrease from 2.2% last year to 2% this year, with PCE inflation projected to drop from 2.5% to 2.3% [1][4] - The report anticipates that risk assets may reach new highs, with cyclical and value stocks outperforming tech and growth stocks [1][2] United States - The US housing market is expected to see an increase in sales volume while prices remain stable, with existing home sales projected to grow by 10% and new home sales by 5% in 2026 [7] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 5.4% last year to 6.2% this year, with significant tax cuts expected to stimulate the economy [11] - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once in June, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to rise from 4.18% to 4.3% by year-end [12][14] United Kingdom - The UK economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown, with GDP growth forecasted to decrease from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year [19][20] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.4% to 5.1% as the job market cools, while wage growth is expected to normalize [20] - The report anticipates that the Bank of England will cut rates twice in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25% [24] Eurozone - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year, with inflation projected to stabilize around the target level [1][2] - The report indicates that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle has ended, with policy rates expected to remain unchanged [1][2] Japan - Japan's GDP growth is forecasted to decline significantly from 1.3% last year to 0.7% this year, with inflation also expected to decrease [1][2] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan may raise rates twice, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise from 2.07% to 2.45% [1][2] China - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5% last year to 4.6% this year, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [1][2] - The report anticipates that the People's Bank of China will implement two rate cuts totaling 20 basis points and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [2]