Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Industrial Policy Boosts, Macroeconomic Disturbance Continues [1] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45%. The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [5][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined last week. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45% [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [8][36] 1.3 Demand Side - The copper foil production rate increased against the trend, and the production rate of refined copper rods increased with the decline in copper prices. In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [9][40] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and LME and COMEX copper inventories reached high levels. As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [10][47] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Fundamentally, the shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope, which boosts market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production rates of downstream enterprises gradually decline, and the overall demand weakens. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. It is expected that the inventory pressure at home and abroad will further increase after the holiday. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [11] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached a new high since February 2022. According to data released on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI index soared from 47.9 in the previous month to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5. An index above 50 means economic activity expansion, and the latest reading also exceeded all survey expectations of economists by the media. US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2022, mainly boosted by robust growth in new orders and output. The employment index reached a one-year high but remained in the contraction zone. The prices paid index reached a four-month high [16] - Trump plans to invest $12 billion to stockpile critical minerals. US President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a strategic critical minerals stockpiling plan worth a total of $12 billion, aiming to protect US manufacturers from supply chain shocks by establishing a commercial inventory mechanism and further strengthen national industrial security. According to media reports, this plan called "Project Vault" will provide a $10 billion loan through the US Export-Import Bank, combined with $1.67 billion in private capital, to purchase and store minerals for automobile manufacturers, technology companies, and other manufacturing giants. This will be the first such stockpiling project in the US private sector, not only setting a record in scale but also operating in a similar mode to the country's strategic petroleum reserve [17] - The US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. On February 4, according to data released by the ADP Research Institute, the US private sector added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 45,000 and also lower than the revised previous value (the increase in December was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000). If not for the surge of 74,000 jobs in the education and healthcare services industries, the overall employment might have declined. By industry, many sectors showed a contraction trend. Among them, the professional and business services industry significantly reduced 57,000 positions, and the manufacturing industry also cut 8,000 jobs. The report continued the weak trend since the end of 2025, indicating that the employment market remained in a stalemate of "low recruitment, low layoffs" [17] - The US ISM services PMI in January reached a new high since 2024. Data released by the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the services PMI index in January was 53.8, the same as in December and also the same as the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. An index above 50 indicates that the US service industry, which accounts for the largest proportion of the economy, is in an expansion state. US service enterprises achieved the strongest continuous growth momentum since 2024 in January. With the recovery of business activities, the expansion momentum of the service industry increased [18] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year. Data released by the Chilean National Statistics Institute (INE) showed that Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to 540,221 tons. The country's manufacturing output in December increased by 0.1% year-on-year [20] - Capstone Copper restarted its Mantoverde copper-gold mine during a continuous strike. According to foreign media on February 2, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Monday that although a strike by a union representing nearly 22% of its employees was still ongoing, its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile had resumed operations. The company reiterated in a document submitted to the Australian Stock Exchange on February 1 that it expected the mine's operating capacity during the strike to remain at 50% to 75% of the normal production level. Previously, union employees rejected Capstone's latest salary proposal, causing the strike that began in January to continue to ferment, and the strike is still ongoing, and the dispute between the two sides has thus escalated. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of cathode copper, accounting for about 0.4% of global copper production [20] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Association will cooperate with relevant departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects. At the press conference on the economic operation of the nonferrous metals industry in 2025 held by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Deputy Secretary-General Duan Shaofu of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that the industry will solidly promote the governance of copper smelting capacity. Currently, more than 2 million tons of copper smelting projects have been stopped in China, and the excessive growth momentum of copper smelting capacity has been effectively curbed. The industry association will continue to cooperate with relevant national departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects and improve the situation of the increasing external procurement ratio from the source [20] - Anglo American's copper production in 2025 decreased by 10% year-on-year, and it lowered its copper production targets for 2026 - 2027. According to foreign media on February 5, the latest report released by Anglo American showed that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's copper production was 169,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. This was due to the lower ore grades of the Quellaveco and Collahuasi mines. The annual copper production in 2025 was 695,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, at the lower end of its production guidance range. Anglo American simultaneously adjusted its medium- and long-term copper production guidance, lowering its 2026 copper production target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 700,000 - 760,000 tons, slightly adjusting the 2027 target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 750,000 - 810,000 tons, and setting the 2028 target at 790,000 - 850,000 tons [20] - The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile ended, and Capstone Copper will resume full production. According to foreign media on February 5, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Friday that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile had approved a new three-year labor contract, and the one-month-long strike officially ended. The company has reached an agreement with all four unions at the mine, and the mine will gradually resume full production from the current capacity of about 55%. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of copper cathode, accounting for about 0.4% of global production. Capstone Copper holds a 70% stake in the Mantoverde mine, and Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corporation holds the remaining 30% [20] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premiums and Discounts - The decline in copper prices led to an increase in downstream purchases, and the contango widened under the suppression of high copper prices. The spot discount continued to converge slightly. As the Spring Festival approached and downstream enterprises stockpiled, the spot supply was tight, and Shanghai copper changed from a discount to a premium. - The LME copper 0 - 3 remained at a discount, the New York - London copper price difference turned negative, and the arbitrage window for transporting copper from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to the LME opened. The LME deliverable copper inventory has reached an 11-month high [24] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of February 6, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 175,306 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 21.36%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 318,363 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 20.75%. Both the trading volume and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased significantly. - As of January 30, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 1,782.99 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 78.17%. As of February 3, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 55,923 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 3.61% [26] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [36] 4.2 Downstream Production Rates - In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. - As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [40] 4.3 Inventory - As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [47]
铜周报：产业政策提振，宏观扰动持续-20260209
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-02-09 06:28