大宗商品波动明显上升，节前注意风险防控

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - Macro - situation: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - Commodity views: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - US: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - Eurozone: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - Geopolitical: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - Precious metals: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - "Happy Shopping for Spring Festival": The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - 2026 Credit Work Conference: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - Policy - end: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Production end: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - Demand end: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - Price trends: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].