Guoyuan Securities·2026-02-09 06:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [7] Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index decreased by 0.9% this week, with MPS and TSMC increasing by 9.4% and 5.5%, while AMD and NVIDIA fell by 12% and 3.0% respectively [1][10] - The domestic AI chip index dropped by 11.2%, with significant declines in companies like Cambricon and Aojie Technology, both exceeding 11% [1][10] - The server ODM index rose by 2.0%, driven by Supermicro and Quanta, which increased by 18% and 7.1% respectively [1][10] - The storage chip index fell by 13.7%, with companies like Jucheng Technology experiencing a 20% drop [1][10] - The power semiconductor index decreased by 6.5%, reflecting broader market trends [1][10] Market Data - Global laptop shipments are expected to reach 46.467 million units in Q4 2025, driven by increased demand due to rising storage chip prices [2][24] - Global tablet shipments are projected at 44 million units in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% for the entire year [2][27] - A decline of 6.1% in global smartphone shipments is anticipated for 2026, with smartphone SoC shipments expected to drop by 7% compared to 2025 [2][30] Major Events - Intel and AMD have notified Chinese customers of server CPU supply shortages, with Intel's server product prices in China increasing by over 10% [3][31] - Amazon's overall capital expenditure is projected to rise to approximately $200 billion in 2026, a nearly 60% increase from 2025 [3][31] - TSMC plans to start mass production of 3nm chips at its second wafer plant in Kumamoto, Japan, by 2028 [3][31] - Infineon will implement price adjustments for power switches and IC products starting April 1, 2026, with increases up to 25% due to surging AI demand [3][32] - Intel is entering the GPU market, targeting AI computing scenarios in data centers, directly challenging NVIDIA's dominance [3][32]