养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Oil: This week, the main soybean oil contract declined due to macro - and geopolitical disturbances. The domestic and international fundamental market logic of soybean oil has no obvious changes. The U.S. biodiesel policy has positive expectations, palm oil production areas are in a period of production reduction and inventory decline, and domestic oil inventories are decreasing. It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. It is advisable to consider long - position operations after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8560 - 8600 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: This week, the main rapeseed oil contract fluctuated downward, mainly affected by the sharp drop in crude oil prices and news of rapeseed purchases. The supply is expected to turn loose, but the current low - margin on the futures market may provide some support after the price decline. As the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, market trading has become dull. It is advisable to wait and see before the holiday. The resistance range of the 05 contract is 9390 - 9400, and the support range is 8800 - 8810 [1]. - Palm Oil: This week, the main palm oil contract fluctuated downward, driven by the sharp drop in crude oil and the collective weakness of the oil and fat sector, and the departure of long - position holders due to increased risk - aversion sentiment. The latest biodiesel tax credit policy (45Z) announced by the IRS has strengthened the positive expectations for U.S. biodiesel, which may have an indirect positive impact on palm oil. The supply - demand situation in the first quarter has strong support. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. The resistance range of the main contract is 9370 - 9400, and the support range is 8880 - 8900 [2]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2: This week, the prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 declined, mainly due to the general decline of commodities under the influence of macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances. The fundamentals are mixed. It is advisable to exit short - positions in soybean meal and wait and see. During the period of weather disturbances and the vacuum of biodiesel news, it is advisable to temporarily exit the oil - meal ratio arbitrage before the holiday [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: This week, rapeseed meal fluctuated downward. The supply is expected to turn loose, but the low - margin on the futures market limits the downward space of the price. The short - term driving force is limited, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider taking profit on previous short - positions [4]. - Soybean No. 1: This week, the main soybean No. 1 futures contract fluctuated at a high level. The market logic has no obvious changes. The stocking of domestic soybeans is coming to an end, market activity has decreased, and sentiment has weakened. It is advisable to exit long - positions and wait and see [4]. - Corn and Corn Starch: This week, the futures prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate. The U.S. corn production and ending stocks are at a historical high, which constitutes the main market pressure. However, the good export performance of U.S. corn and the optimistic expectation of fuel ethanol have offset the negative impact to some extent. It is advisable to wait and see or pay attention to the opportunity of going long on far - month contracts on dips [4]. - Pigs: This week, approaching the Spring Festival, consumption entered the last peak. The spot price of pigs fluctuated slightly. The slaughter volume rebounded month - on - month. The futures price of pigs hit a new annual low, and the discount of the 03 contract to the spot price widened. It is advisable for cautious investors to exit the short - near - month and long - far - month reverse arbitrage opportunely, and for aggressive investors to buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep - out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 points to reduce the cost of bottom - fishing [5]. - Eggs: Approaching the Spring Festival, domestic sales strengthened. The spot price of eggs rebounded slightly. After the Spring Festival, the egg price is expected to have a relatively limited seasonal decline. It is advisable for aggressive investors to buy the 2605 contract on dips, and it is necessary to be cautious about short - selling speculatively [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, market trading is light, and sentiment is cooling | 4300 - 4310 | 4500 - 4550 | Oscillatory adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | | Soybean No. 2 05 | The U.S. soybean biodiesel policy has positive expectations, and South American weather disturbances are intensifying. Short - term soybean No. 2 may stop falling | 3400 - 3420 | 3550 - 3580 | Firm operation | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | South American weather disturbances are intensifying, the U.S. biodiesel expectation is positive, and the positive driving force for soybean oil continues | 7850 - 7880 | 8250 - 8300 | Oscillatory and bullish | Light - position short - term long | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Supply is expected to turn loose, but the current low - margin on the futures market may provide some support after the price decline. Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and market trading is dull | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Range oscillation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Palm 05 | The supply - demand situation in the main production areas in the first quarter still has strong support | 8880 - 8900 | 9370 - 9400 | Oscillatory and bullish | Go long on dips | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 05 | South American weather disturbances are intensifying, and soybean meal may stop falling and oscillate in the short term | 2650 - 2680 | 2780 - 2800 | Firm operation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Supply is turning loose, but the margin on the futures market is falling | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Low - level oscillation | Take profit on short - positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | The structural contradiction support continues, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the range | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Range fluctuation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Starch 03 | The cost - end corn price fluctuates in the range, and it may follow the corn to fluctuate in the range in the short term | 2430 - 2440 | 2630 - 2650 | Range fluctuation | Temporarily wait and see | | Livestock | Pigs 03 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the industry has capacity - reduction policies | 11000 - 11200 | 11800 - 12500 | Low - level oscillation | Go long on dips | | | Eggs 03 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3080 | 3150 - 3280 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Go long on dips | [9] 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Basis of Main Contract | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4160 | 4160 | - 218 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3950 | 3950 | 452 | 0 | | | Peanut | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8650 | 8650 | 408 | - 28 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 9940 | 0 | 796 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9080 | - 100 | 54 | - 84 | | Proteins | Soybean Meal | 3050 | 0 | 365 | 365 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2520 | 0 | 281 | - 1 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2310 | 0 | 63 | 203 | | | Starch | 2640 | 0 | 57 | - 11 | | Livestock | Pigs | 12.14 (yuan/kg) | 0.03 (yuan/kg) | 775 | - 390 | | | Eggs | 2.82 (yuan/jin) | - 0.29 (yuan/jin) | 746 (yuan/500kg) | - 113.00 (yuan/500kg) | [10][11] 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil at different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the profit is zero [11][12]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operation rate of various oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operation rates of soybean oil mills, rapeseed oil mills, and peanut oil mills [13]. 3.2.2 Feed The report presents the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [13]. 3.2.3 Livestock - Pigs: The data includes the weekly average prices of binary sows, 7KG external - ternary piglets, external - ternary pigs, and pig feed, as well as the breeding cost, profit, pig - grain ratio, slaughter weight, slaughter data, and frozen - product inventory rate [14]. - Eggs: The data covers the laying rate, the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the age and quantity of culled chickens, the sales volume, inventory, profit, and related spot prices [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts 3.3.1 Livestock (Pigs and Eggs) The report provides the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, white - striped pigs, eggs, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [16][18][19][21]. 3.3.2 Oilseeds and Oils - Palm Oil: It includes the monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import margin, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of Malaysian palm oil [26][29]. - Soybean Oil: It shows the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operation rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis [31][33][36]. - Peanuts: It presents the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit, the weekly raw - material procurement volume of some oil mills, the weekly operation rate, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills, the monthly import volume, price spreads, and basis [38][40][42]. 3.3.3 Feed - Corn: It includes the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, processing profit, and price difference with wheat of corn [44][47][49]. - Corn Starch: It shows the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operation rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [52][53][54]. - Rapeseed: It presents the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, crushing volume, and profit of rapeseed [56][60][61]. - Soybean Meal: It includes the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in ports and soybean meal in domestic oil mills [65][67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][74][75]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [80][85][87].