玖龙纸业（02689）：点评报告：纸浆布局超额显现，业绩再超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi contributing to a rapid reduction in production costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance above expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit growth due to its self-produced pulp advantages [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials is expected to further enhance profitability. The company has plans to build additional chemical pulp production facilities in Chongqing and Tianjin, with expected production increases in the coming years [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 72.67 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, and 74.76 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 2%, and 1%. The attributable net profit is expected to be 4.08 billion yuan, 4.41 billion yuan, and 5.04 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 131%, 8%, and 14%. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 [4][9]