流动性周报20260208：债券的交易窗口还在-20260209

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market still has a trading window in February, with the 10 - year Treasury bond being the preferred choice. If the interest - rate cut is realized before the "Two Sessions", there could be greater trading space. However, the trading window may only last until early March. If there is no interest - rate cut by then, the bond market may face adjustment pressure. [2][3][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Bond trading window still exists - In 2026, the stock market's spring rally has a combination of characteristics such as mid - stage acceleration, loose expectations, and growth - dominated. Its impact on the bond market is mainly a temporary disturbance. If the interest - rate cut occurs in spring, there may be a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds. [9] - The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is in a downward - repair state and is approaching the resistance level of 1.8%. The mainstream market expectation is that the bond market will fluctuate, and the profit - making effect of bonds ranks relatively low among major asset classes. [9] - The yield decline of the 10 - year Treasury bond since the beginning of the year is supported by three factors: high initial yield, marginal decline in risk appetite, and restored confidence in reserve - requirement and interest - rate cuts. Only the third factor can bring substantial benefits to the bond market. If the yield breaks below 1.8% and continues to decline, it must be due to a cut in policy interest rates. [10] - For funds and short - term interest rates, low volatility has become the norm. The central bank aims for stable fund rates and will use "narrowing the interest - rate corridor" for regulation in the future. The 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks is expected to fluctuate around 1.6%, with an upper and lower space of only 5BP. [12] - The co - existence of "holding stocks for the holiday" and "holding bonds for the holiday" may have two scenarios: the best scenario is that the post - holiday interest - rate cut drives a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds; the second - best scenario is that stocks and bonds become uncorrelated after the holiday, with stocks rising while the bond market remains volatile. If the stock market rises sharply or the technology sector spreads to the cyclical sector after the holiday, the bond market will face adjustment pressure. [14] 2. Potential adjustment window in March - The bond market may face an adjustment window again in March. Besides risk appetite, the supply pressure of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds also needs to be considered. If the interest - rate cut is not realized by March, and there is a one - sided adjustment in 30 - year Treasury bonds, the bond market may restart an adjustment. [3][16]