临近假期企业待发量尚可：长江期货尿素周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. Urea's检修装置 has复产 plans, leading to an increase in daily output and supply. Agricultural demand is gradually limited, and industrial demand shows a mixed trend with a narrow fluctuation in compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in melamine operating rate. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market are gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises have a decent backlog of orders. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Changes - Urea's futures price fluctuated weakly, while the spot price moved slightly upward. On February 6, the closing price of the Urea 2605 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous week, with a maximum of 1798 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1766 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1744 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous week. [2][5] - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On February 6, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 32 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-46) - (-27) yuan/ton. [2][8] - The 5 - 9 spread of urea strengthened. On February 6, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of 32 - 38 yuan/ton. [2][9] 3.2 Fundamental Changes 3.2.1 Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 87.98%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 64.6%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 20.99 tons. Some overhauled devices in Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shandong resumed production or increased production, and the daily output reached around 210,000 tons, with sufficient supply of goods. [2][12] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of anthracite coal in the market was slightly stronger on a stable basis. As of February 5, the tax - inclusive price of washed anthracite small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 9.66%. The mainstream price of the urea spot market moved upward, and the urea production profit remained stable. [2][16] 3.2.3 Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 6.5 days, and the weekly production - sales ratio of urea enterprises was 99.6%. Agricultural demand was gradually limited. In terms of industrial demand, the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of melamine decreased. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market were gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises had a decent backlog of orders. [2][17][18] 3.2.4 Industrial Demand - The production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 749,300 tons, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week. Winter storage shipments continued to slow down, some fertilizer enterprises reduced production, and the growth rate of spot inventory slowed down. As the Spring Festival approaches next week, some fertilizer enterprises will stop production for holidays as planned, and it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers may continue to decline. [2][22] - The operating rate of melamine enterprises was 59.83%, a decrease of 3.65 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 32,080 tons. This week, new devices in Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Phase II, Shandong Heli Tai, and Xinjiang Yuxiang Huyang were shut down for maintenance. The D - area of Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui and Anhui Jinhe had resumed production after short - term shutdowns. [25] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened. [26] 3.2.5 Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 720,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 55,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 241,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, equivalent to 217,200 tons, an increase of 1,599 receipts or 31,980 tons compared with the same period last year. [2][29] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and overhaul of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]