2026年债市风险前瞻：舟泊潮平，吃水三分

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond market credit risk release further slowed down, with a significant decline in the scale of default bonds and the number of new default issuers. However, due to factors such as the structural differences in the financing environment and debt roll - over pressure, the structural risks in some areas were still in the process of orderly clearance. In 2026, the credit risk clearance process in the bond market is expected to remain stable and orderly, with the default rate fluctuating within a low range of 0.2% - 0.3%. But attention should be paid to the credit risks in five key areas [4][5][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Review: Slow but Unfinished, Credit Risks Show Six Characteristics - Lowest Default Scale in a Decade and Low Default Rate, Continued Slow - down of Risk Release: In 2025, the bond market default risk release further slowed down. The scale of default bonds was the lowest in a decade, with 26 new default bonds, a 67% year - on - year decrease in default scale to 223.4 billion yuan, and 12 new default issuers. The monthly rolling default rate in the public offering market showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with an end - of - year rate of 0.27%, basically the same as at the end of 2024 [6]. - Risk Clearance Concentrated in Private Enterprises, but Dispersed in Regions and Industries: Among the 12 new default issuers, 10 were private enterprises. The default risks showed a multi - point and multi - industry distribution, covering 8 industries and 7 provinces in the eastern, central, and western regions. Non - bank financial institutions had an increase in defaults [9]. - New Default Events Driven by Industry Cycles, Strategic Mistakes, and Governance Defects: Industry cycles led to weakened profitability of some issuers; strategic mistakes such as over - aggressive diversification or high - premium acquisitions caused resource misallocation; governance defects like high - proportion equity pledges and related - party transactions eroded the operating foundation. Negative events could also lead to a deterioration of the financing environment and accelerate default [11][12]. - "Re - extension" Drove the Growth of Extension Scale, with Real Estate Enterprises Accounting for Nearly 80%: In 2025, there were more bond extension events. The total scale of extended bonds was 534.56 billion yuan, a 28% year - on - year increase. Over 60% were re - extended bonds, with an average extension period of 2.09 years. Real estate enterprises were the main issuers of extended bonds, with a scale of about 410.90 billion yuan, accounting for 77% of the total [13][14]. - Improved Risk Resolution Mechanism and Steady Progress in Default Bond Disposal: A series of risk prevention policies provided institutional support for risk resolution. 10 issuers made substantial progress in default disposal, but the actual payment progress of default bonds was still slow, with the proportion of paid - off bonds less than 20% [15][17]. - Increased Positive Rating Actions under Risk Mitigation, Continued Differentiation in Rating Adjustments: In 2025, the number and proportion of upward rating actions increased. There were 136 main body rating adjustments, with 61 downward and 75 upward. Rating adjustments showed differentiation between state - owned and private enterprises, as well as among different industries [18][20][21]. 2026 Outlook: Stable but with Concerns, Focus on Structural Risks in Five Areas - Risk of Deterioration in the Credit Fundamentals of Export - Oriented Enterprises Dependent on External Demand: In 2026, the global trade volume growth rate may slow to 0.5%. Trade protectionism and green barriers increase the compliance costs of export enterprises and affect order stability. Some export enterprises with high market concentration, low product added value, and weak cost - transfer ability may face credit deterioration [24]. - Liquidity Risks of Weak - Fundamentals Entities in Traditional and Emerging Industries during Industrial Structure Transformation: Traditional manufacturing industries face problems such as insufficient demand and rising costs, while emerging industries face challenges such as rapid technological iteration and over - capacity. In 2026, the bond maturity pressure in related industries remains, and some high - leverage entities may face credit deterioration and liquidity risks [25]. - Uncertainty Risks in the Process of M&A, Reorganization, or Debt Extension of Real Estate Enterprises: In 2025, the real estate market showed some signs of recovery, but the recovery momentum was still weak. Tail - end real estate enterprises still faced financing difficulties and relied on debt extension and reorganization. In 2026, about 400 billion yuan of bonds will mature, and there are risks in the M&A and reorganization process [27]. - Credit Risks of Regional Small and Medium - Sized Financial Institutions due to the Interweaving of Internal and External Risk Factors: Some non - bank financial institutions have faced frequent risk events, affected by regional economic pressure and their own governance problems. Attention should be paid to the risk exposure structure and the ability to cover potential losses, as well as the risk of related - party risk transmission [28]. - Evolution of Operating and Liquidity Risks of Urban Investment Enterprises under the Acceleration of the "Platform Exit" Process and Debt Resolution Pressure: In 2026, as the key stage of the "platform exit" for urban investment enterprises, they face pressure in debt resolution, asset revitalization, and government arrears. Their market - oriented transformation is not effective, and there are risks of liquidity and operation, as well as the possibility of risk resonance and spillover [30].