有色金属基础周报：AI泡沫的担忧再次浮现，有色金属整体弱势调整-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, macro factors continued to dominate the financial market. Concerns about the AI bubble resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in global markets, including stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. However, Shanghai copper rebounded due to news of increased state purchases and then declined again with the external market, finally stabilizing at around 100,000 [4]. - The copper market's sharp decline was mainly driven by sudden panic in the macro - level, and some factors that previously pushed copper prices to new highs have changed. But copper will remain a focus of global strategic resource competition, and its structural shortage may continue. Before the Spring Festival, copper prices may stabilize after a rapid release of risks [4]. - The aluminum market shows mixed trends. Alumina production capacity has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply is increasing unexpectedly. The demand of downstream enterprises is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment disturbances and pre - holiday capital outflows [4]. - The lead market has sufficient supply and weak demand. Affected by the decline in precious metal prices, lead prices hit a new low in 2026. After the pre - holiday profit - taking of short - selling funds in precious metals, the market may stabilize [4]. - The nickel market has a strong support at the mine end, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are affected by production cuts on both the supply and demand sides, and are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as mine risks and changes in supply and demand. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the power demand off - season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Economic data of the current week (2/2 - 2/8): China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, higher than the previous value; the eurozone's January manufacturing PMI was 49.5; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2022; the US January ADP employment increase was 22,000, lower than expected; the US January ISM services PMI was 53.8, reaching a new high since 2024 [12][13][15][17][18]. - Policy and news: China's Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the national reserve; US President Donald Trump plans to invest $12 billion in strategic key mineral reserves [14][16]. - Next - week economic data calendar (2/9 - 2/15): It includes data such as China's January M1 and M2 money supply year - on - year, the US January NFIB small business optimism index, and the US January unemployment rate [20]. 2. Copper - Market review: Shanghai copper first rebounded and then declined, and finally stabilized at around 100,000. The copper market was mainly affected by macro factors and inventory changes [4]. - Key data tracking: It includes LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper inter - period spread curve, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [30][33]. 3. Aluminum - Market review: Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the overall upward trend temporarily maintained [37]. - Key data tracking: It includes 6063 aluminum rod inventory, alumina port inventory, aluminum bauxite port inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, and alumina production cost and profit [41][42][43][45]. 4. Zinc - Market review: Shanghai zinc showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the upward trend of shock temporarily unchanged [50]. - Key data tracking: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory/warehouse receipts, global visible zinc inventory, 0 zinc ingot premium, zinc forward curve, and zinc - related product prices [52][53][58][59]. 5. Lead - Market review: Shanghai lead showed a downward trend of shock, with overall range fluctuations [65]. - Key data tracking: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory/warehouse receipts, global lead inventory, lead forward curve, lead spot premium, and LME lead (spot/three - month) spread [67][70][74]. 6. Nickel - Market review: Shanghai nickel fell from a high level and was under pressure from the lower edge of the upper shock area [78]. - Key data tracking: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory, LME nickel global inventory, high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plate prices, nickel and nickel sulfate prices, and stainless steel inventory [81][82][87][88][90][91][92]. 7. Tin - Market review: Shanghai tin continued to decline after rising, and was temporarily supported by the lower trend line [95]. - Key data tracking: It includes tin futures closing prices, Shanghai tin premium, tin smelting profit, LME tin (spot/three - month) spread, tin - related product prices, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory, and LME tin inventory [98][99][100][101][104]. 8. Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.) - Trend analysis: Shanghai gold rebounded after falling from a high level, maintaining an overall upward trend; Shanghai silver fell again after a rebound, breaking through the previous low, and the trend weakened; platinum and palladium showed wide - range fluctuations; industrial silicon showed wide - range fluctuations and broke through the lower limit of the range; alumina showed small - range fluctuations; polysilicon showed small - range fluctuations and stabilized; aluminum alloy showed small - range fluctuations and the downward trend changed; stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell from high levels, and the upward trend changed [109][111][112][114][116][118][119][122].