策略点评：全球大类资产波动剧烈，A股有望率先恢复上行

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a correction in the previously weak dollar narrative[7] - The A-share market showed relative stability compared to global asset fluctuations, indicating a potential early stabilization[8] A-Share Performance - The A-share market saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.27% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.11%[6] - Trading volume decreased significantly, with an average transaction amount of 24,066.54 billion yuan, down by 6,565.92 billion yuan from the previous week[6] Earnings Forecasts - As of February 4, 2026, 2,956 companies had released their 2025 annual earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 53.96%, up from 51.01% the previous year[9] - The median growth rate for net profit forecasts showed significant improvement, with upper and lower limits at 28.39% and 7.76%, respectively, marking a notable recovery to the medium level of the past decade[9] Sector Analysis - Industries such as non-bank financials, metals, and advanced manufacturing showed positive earnings signals, while real estate and traditional energy sectors faced pressure[9] - The proportion of companies with positive earnings forecasts increased to 36.94%, compared to 33.79% the previous year, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment[9] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the A-share market may have reached a bottom and is poised for a gradual upward trend, supported by improving fundamentals[15] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation across sectors, as market styles may continue to rotate in the short term[15]