股指可考虑轻仓过节，债市或震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The four major stock indices may rebound and then fluctuate. Considering the long Spring Festival holiday, it is advisable to hold a light position before the holiday [11]. - The bond market has no obvious major negative factors and is generally oscillating upward. However, there is no further impetus to drive interest rates down. The bond market may move in a relatively narrow range and wait for the emergence of the next - stage main line [13]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the recovery of production lacks clear demand support. The inventory shows a continuous accumulation trend. High raw material prices may affect the profitability of industrial enterprises [19]. - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026 [22]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened [32]. - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation [35]. - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In January, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: Last week, the four major stock indices were under pressure and declined [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the stock index may move in a fluctuating manner [11]. - Strategy outlook: The stock index is expected to move in a range - bound manner [11]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Treasury bond trend review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main - contract treasury bonds rose by 0.42%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [13]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main - contract of treasury bonds may move in a fluctuating manner [13]. - Strategy outlook: Treasury bonds are expected to move in a fluctuating manner [13]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. The recovery of production is mainly due to the improvement of upstream industry operations and a slight strengthening of export orders, but there is no clear demand improvement support [19]. CPI - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026, including the low - base effect, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption [22]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly to 6.6%, with a month - on - month growth of 8.3%. The annual export growth exceeded expectations mainly due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. Large - scale Industrial Enterprises - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, turning negative from positive. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses increased [32]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation. The reasons include the general weakness of consumption channels and the weakening drag of durable goods [35]. Social Financing - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In December 2025, the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations focusing on structural tools [38].