南华期货甲醇产业周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is currently influenced by geopolitical factors and the performance of the non - ferrous metals market. Unilateral trading is difficult as pricing power is not mainly in the industrial sector, and the trading rhythm is fast. The price center of the main methanol contract is rising. With the approach of the Spring Festival, downstream demand in Shandong has decreased, but overall demand remains okay. The 05 contract is facing downstream production, and the long - position expectations have not been falsified. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [2]. - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be oscillating upwards, with a price range of 2100 - 2350. The recommended strategies are 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO margins [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The methanol market follows geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends. The main change in fundamentals is that an Iranian ZPC device returned at 40% load last Wednesday. The 05 contract increased positions by over 50,000 lots on Wednesday night, and the industrial pricing is more reflected in the 5 - 9 reverse spread. The main methanol contract declined with the resumption of US - Iran negotiations and the fall of non - ferrous precious metals. Unilateral trading is difficult, and attention should be paid to both geopolitical and non - ferrous metal market changes. The price center of the main contract is rising. Although downstream demand in Shandong has decreased during the Spring Festival, overall demand is still acceptable, and the upstream inventory in the inland area is in a healthy state before the festival. The 05 contract is facing downstream production, and long - position expectations have not been falsified [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Base - price Strategy: This week, the price of methanol 05 was 2245. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 05 basis declined [12]. - Spread Strategy: This week, with the expectation of MTO shutdown, the 3 - 5 spread went into a reverse spread [13]. - Trend Judgment and Strategy Suggestion: The trend of methanol is expected to be oscillating upwards, with a short - term price range of 2100 - 2350. The recommended strategies are 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO margins [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - The inland methanol inventory situation is presented through multiple data charts, including the inventory of northwest methanol (excluding MTO), northwest MTO inventory, southern and northern line methanol plant inventories, national methanol plant inventory, national net plant inventory (plant inventory - pre - sales), and methanol northwest pending orders [20][24][29]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - The port inventory situation is shown through various data charts, including the weekly inventory seasonality of Chinese methanol ports (from Steel Union and SCI), the weekly inventory seasonality of methanol ports in different provinces, methanol downstream inventory in the East China region (excluding Shandong), methanol coastal available inventory, and methanol weekly arrival volume seasonality [36][52]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Range Forecast: The predicted price range of methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [63]. - Hedging Strategy Table: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there is a concern about methanol price decline, it is recommended to short methanol futures to lock in profits and buy put options while selling call options. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy methanol futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [63]. - Positive Information: There is news that the Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi called on workers in key oil, gas, and energy sectors to start a national - scale strike and hold large - scale demonstrations [64]. - Negative Information: Iran's shipments in January were 390,000 tons [65]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Donald Trump expressed support for protesters and stated that the US is ready to provide assistance. The US government is discussing a possible strike against Iran, including air strikes on military targets, but no decision has been made [67]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland area, the current methanol production is at an absolute high level, while winter is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. Downstream users' raw material inventories are generally high, and there is a phenomenon of vehicle congestion in some downstream sectors. Some olefin plants in the port area have shutdown plans, which will further weaken demand and significantly suppress market sentiment [68]. - This week, the 1 - 5 spread oscillated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [76]. 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The document presents price trends of various products, including coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao, methanol prices in the Lunan market and Taicang, and methanol warehouse receipts and related indicators [80][81][86]. 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - It shows the production costs and profit seasonality of methanol produced from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions, as well as the profit seasonality of downstream products such as MTO, acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde [92][94][127]. 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Yield Tracking in the Industrial Chain - It includes the weekly operating rates of major methanol enterprises, methanol production from different raw materials, and the operating rates of downstream products such as MTO and traditional downstream products [98][101][114]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - It presents the import volume seasonality of methanol from different countries, the external - market structure of methanol, and the import profit seasonality of Iranian methanol [132][134]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate seasonality of foreign methanol production, the overseas weekly production volume, and the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants [136][137]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory changes of methanol in ports from January 2025 to May 2026, including Iranian and non - Iranian imports, various demand items, and inventory consumption ratios [140].