碳酸锂周报：淡季排产减少，价格偏弱震荡-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons last week, and the January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and mines in Yichun and Qinghai are facing permit review. Overseas imports in December 2025 showed an 8.1% month - on - month increase in lithium concentrate imports, and a 9% increase in lithium carbonate imports. Some lithium ore - purchasing manufacturers face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. - In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. - It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust. Although the demand for exports is strong and the destocking trend continues, the supply is expected to be supplemented by South American lithium salt imports. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, the price will likely remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons, and January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and Yichun and Qinghai production enterprises received mine permit review notices. Some mines in Jiangxi may face shutdown. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In December 2025, China imported 789,000 tons of lithium concentrate, an 8.1% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium carbonate imports in December were 23,989 tons, a 9% month - on - month increase [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers purchasing lithium ore face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. Demand - The overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, and there are risks in Yichun's mine permits. January's domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3% month - on - month. December's lithium concentrate imports were 789,000 tons, an 8.1% month - on - month increase, and lithium carbonate imports were about 24,000 tons, an 8.7% month - on - month increase and a 14.4% year - on - year decrease. Strong downstream demand for exports and the destocking trend continue. It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. - From the demand side, the production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while it increased significantly in January due to export rush. The cathode production schedule in November increased by 2% month - on - month. There are continuous risks in Yichun's mine permits. With profit restoration, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, and the pre - demand for battery exports drives downstream production increase. Inventory continues to decline, and South American lithium salt shipments increase. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at Yichun's mine end. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The document provides multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, monthly factory inventory, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, production of ternary materials, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium spodumene, market price of ternary materials, and import volume of lithium carbonate [8][9][11][12][16][18][20][27][29][30][33][34]. - In 2026 January, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.06% from salt lakes, 24.55% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [21][22].