2025年城投行业运行回顾与2026年展望：“退平台”倒计时下的城投风险再审视

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the urban investment bond market continued to tighten. The domestic issuance scale declined for two consecutive years after peaking in 2023, and the net financing turned negative for the first time. The overseas financing policy moved closer to the domestic one, and the urban investment bond market entered the stock era. The reduction in non - key provinces was particularly obvious [3][13]. - In 2026, it is the last year of this round of local debt replacement. The refinancing environment of urban investment enterprises is expected to remain tight. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds is about 4.6 trillion, and the net outflow may exceed 100 billion. The debt repayment pressure of key regions such as Yunnan, Guangxi, and Tianjin remains high [6][13][60]. - In the future, attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of urban investment enterprises under the countdown of "exiting the platform", the progress and efficiency of asset revitalization, the negative impact of government arrears, and the transformation quality of urban investment enterprises [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Urban Investment Bond Features - Issuance scale continued to decline, and net financing of domestic and overseas urban investment bonds turned negative: The domestic issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 5.30 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.48%. The net financing scale was - 1574.69 billion yuan. Only provincial and AAA - rated urban investment entities had positive net financing. The overseas issuance scale decreased by 17.89% year - on - year, and the net financing scale turned from positive to negative, reaching - 2905 million yuan [4][17][21]. - The proportion of debt rollover increased, and the level of financing subjects for new - type urban investment bonds rose: The broad - sense debt rollover ratio of domestic bonds reached 98.58%, and the narrow - sense ratio reached 93.40%. The overseas broad - sense debt rollover ratio increased by 16.27 percentage points to 67.99%. The financing subjects for new - type urban investment domestic bonds were mainly provincial and AAA - rated entities [33]. - Net financing in non - key provinces declined significantly, and credit spreads in each province generally narrowed: Both key and non - key regions had net outflows of urban investment bonds, with non - key regions having a deeper net outflow. 13 provinces had a 100% debt rollover ratio. The credit spreads of 31 provinces narrowed, but regional risk differences still existed [39][40]. - "Exiting the platform" and transformation accelerated, and the progress in the eastern and central regions was faster: The number of restructuring and integration events of urban investment enterprises increased year by year. More enterprises declared to become market - oriented business entities or exit the financing platform list, especially in the eastern and central regions. Some entities achieved their first bond issuance after "exiting the platform" [48]. - Credit risk events in key provinces decreased, and economic provinces faced relatively large debt pressure: The number of non - standard defaults and commercial bill overdue events of urban investment enterprises decreased. However, the credit risk of urban investment enterprises spread from weak to strong regions and from low - level to high - level entities. Economic provinces such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Henan faced relatively large debt pressure [53][55]. 2026 Issuance Forecast - Maturity and put - back pressure remains high: The maturity scale of urban investment bonds in 2026 is about 3.47 trillion yuan, and the put - back scale is about 840 billion yuan, with a total of 4.31 trillion yuan. Key regions such as Yunnan, Guangxi, and Tianjin face relatively large debt roll - over pressure [60]. - Early redemption scale and proportion remain at a certain level: In 2025, 1369 urban investment bonds were redeemed early, with a total scale of 241.655 billion yuan. The early redemption scale of key provinces accounted for 13.54% of the total maturity scale, much higher than 3.26% in non - key provinces [64]. - Issuance scale is expected to be about 4.6 trillion, and net outflow may exceed 100 billion: The refinancing environment of urban investment enterprises will remain tight. The issuance scale is expected to be between 4.5 and 4.6 trillion yuan, and the net outflow trend is difficult to reverse. The proportion of debt rollover will remain high, and the level of financing subjects for new - type urban investment bonds may continue to rise [6][67][68]. Follow - up Concerns and Investment Strategies - Follow - up concerns: Pay attention to the liquidity pressure of urban investment enterprises under the countdown of "exiting the platform", the progress and efficiency of asset revitalization, the negative impact of government arrears, and the transformation quality of urban investment enterprises [73][74][76][77]. - Investment strategies: In 2026, urban investment bonds still have certain allocation value. Investors can explore short - duration urban investment bonds of medium - and low - grade in regions where debt - resolution policies are well - implemented. In 2027, June may be a critical differentiation point for urban investment enterprises. Investors should be vigilant against the credit risk of weak entities after the withdrawal of debt - resolution policies [80].