PVC周报：关注抢出口的持续性，震荡运行-20260209

Report Summary - Report Title: PVC Weekly Report: Focus on the Sustainability of Export Rush, Trading in a Range - Report Date: February 8, 2026 - Reporting Team: Energy and Chemicals Team - Analysts: Guo Jianfeng, Guo Yanpeng, Li Qian 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term export rush and low valuation support the bottom of the PVC market, but attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory accumulation. The domestic PVC supply is stable, domestic demand is in the seasonal off - peak, and exports are the key variable. Although the export rush supports the near - term price, there may be a marginal decline in the long - term, and the high - inventory pattern is hard to change. The cost side shows low valuation, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Review - This week, PVC first rose and then fell, with the weekly line turning negative. It opened at 5040 at the beginning of the week, led the chemical sector's rise on Wednesday to a four - month high of 5178, then fell to a low of 4941 on Friday, and finally closed at 4981, with an amplitude of 237 points [3][8]. 3.2 Capital and Related Indicators - As of this Friday, the main contract's open interest was 1.1 million lots, at a high level for the same period. The V5 - 9 spread was - 113 yuan/ton as of this Friday, and on January 12, it once strengthened to - 40 yuan/ton due to export tariff news. Considering the short - term export demand front - loading effect, a long - short spread trade between May and September contracts can be considered [11][17]. 3.3 Valuation - As of this Thursday, the integrated profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was - 937 yuan/ton, still at a low level for the same period, and that of Northwest China was 926 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period. Shandong's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.63 yuan/kWh (month - on - month decrease of 0.02), falling for three consecutive months; Inner Mongolia Western's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.45 yuan/ton (month - on - month increase of 0.01), rising for two consecutive months [20][22]. 3.4 Supply - This week, PVC output was 480,000 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.2), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%, remaining stable for seven consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate was 79%. Only Formosa Plastics (82) in Taiwan and Tosoh (22) in Guangzhou have new planned maintenance in February [26]. 3.5 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 20.4%, - 10.0%, - 18.1%, and - 8.7% respectively. The sales area has seen an expanding decline for eight consecutive months. The real estate transaction area is at a low level for the same period. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the price indices of newly built and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively, and the month - on - month growth rates were - 0.37% and - 0.70% respectively [31][34]. 3.6 External Demand - This week, the FOB price of Chinese calcium carbide, CFR price to India, and Southeast Asian price in January increased by $20, $20, and $0 per ton respectively. The Asian market price continued to rise, and the March contract price is expected to increase by $20 - 40 per ton. The Indian market price is rising, but demand is still insufficient. The US PVC market price is expected to rise further. In 2025, PVC exports were 3.82 million tons (year - on - year increase of 1.21 million tons, cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). In January 2026, the average monthly export order volume was 62,000 tons (compared to 35,000 tons last year), and exports are expected to maintain high growth in the first quarter [37][42]. 3.7 Inventory - As of this Thursday, PVC enterprise inventory was 290,000 tons, decreasing for four consecutive weeks. The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 590,000 tons, the large - sample social inventory was 1.23 million tons, and the upper - middle - stream inventory was 1.52 million tons (week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons), rising for six consecutive weeks. It is expected that the social inventory will reach 1.38 million tons by the end of February [45][47]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Situation - This week, caustic soda output was 864,000 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.1), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and the capacity utilization rate was 88%, at a high level for the same period. In 2025, caustic soda exports were 4.1 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 34%). The current caustic soda factory inventory is 470,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 49,000 tons, showing a high - level decline [58][60][63]. 3.9 Strategies - Single - side trading: Treat it as range - bound trading. Focus on the V2605 contract in the range of 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton. - Hedging: Since the futures market is in a contango structure, industrial customers can sell on rallies. - Arbitrage: The export rush supports the near - term price. Consider a long - short spread trade between the May and September contracts [5].