印尼减产传闻待验证，节前区间偏弱运行：中辉期货双焦周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, news of Indonesian coal exports disturbed the market, but the impact was short - lived, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to rise and then fall. With domestic coal mines starting to shut down for the holiday, daily production has significantly declined. Coal mine clean coal inventories are being depleted, and downstream enterprises are restocking as needed [4]. - Indonesia has denied the market's rumor of production cuts. In the short term, about 6.16 million tons of monthly imported Indonesian coal are affected, accounting for 15.1% of China's monthly imports, but the actual impact is limited. In the long term, if Indonesia cuts production, China can make up for the gap by increasing domestic production and imports from Russia and Mongolia, but the cost - effectiveness of Indonesian coal is hard to replace. Future attention should be paid to the RKAB approval results [5]. - With only one week left until the Lunar New Year, downstream pre - holiday restocking is almost over. As the impact of the news weakens, the futures market has been reducing positions and declining since Thursday. With relatively limited supply - demand contradictions, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next week, and a cautious bearish attitude is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Coking Coal Market 3.1.1. Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Meng 5 | Tangshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1430 | 1203 | | Meng 5 | Inner Mongolia | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1230 | 1225 | | Anze Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1570 | 1310 | | Gujiao Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1491 | 1231 | | Pingmei No.1 | Pingdingshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1630 | 1145 | | Shan Jiao Rizhao No.1 | Rizhao | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1600 | 1150 | | Xiang Jiao No.1 | Linfen | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1400 | 1120 | | Kaijia No.1 | Jiexiu | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1500 | 1200 | [10] 3.1.2. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 72 | 2 | - 5.85% | - 99 | - 162 | | May | 170 | - 11 | 13.82% | 145 | - 23 | | September | 94 | - 9 | 7.64% | 67 | - 60 | [12] 3.1.3. Coking Coal Supply - Mines: The average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9253 million tons, a decrease of 52,900 tons compared to the previous week; the average daily output of clean coal was 754,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to the previous week [19]. - Coal Washeries: The average daily output of sample coal washeries was 263,100 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 35.54%, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the previous week [22]. 3.1.4. Coking Coal Imports - In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, imports from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [23][26]. | Country | As of 2025 - 12 - 31 | Cumulative Value | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mongolia | 672 | 6007 | 7.6% | 59.1% | 5.8% | | Russia | 360 | 3276 | 31.3% | 55.0% | 8.4% | | Canada | 110 | 1080 | 109.9% | 8.4% | 19.8% | | Australia | 178 | 886 | 109.3% | 10.5% | - 14.0% | | Other Countries | 57 | 613 | 54.3% | - 62.8% | - 60.6% | | Total | 1377 | 11863 | 28.3% | 28.6% | - 2.7% | [25] 3.1.5. Coking Coal Auction Data | Coking Coal Auction Data | 2026 - 01 - 30 | 2026 - 01 - 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Listing Volume (10,000 tons) | 154.43 | 137.735 | 16.70 | | Transaction Rate (%) | 70.22 | 88.02 | - 17.8 | | Unsold Rate (%) | 29.78 | 11.98 | 17.8 | [29] 3.2. Coke Market 3.2.1. Coke Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1480 | 1736 | | Rizhao Port Dry - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1680 | 1725 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Pengfei Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1530 | 1700 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Hengfeng Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1740 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Shanxi Jinhui) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1690 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Zhongjin Taihang) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1310 | 1697 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Jiexiu Changsheng) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1330 | 1719 | | Handan Dry - Quenched (Xinsheng Coal Chemical) | Hebei | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1550 | 1650 | [39] 3.2.2. Coking Profit | Region | 2026 - 01 - 29 | 2026 - 01 - 22 | Weekly Change | Same - Period Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | - 55 | - 66 | 11 | - 28 | | Shanxi | - 41 | - 51 | 10 | - 41 | | Hebei | 0 | - 11 | 11 | - 11 | | Inner Mongolia | - 92 | - 103 | 11 | 4 | | Shandong | 2 | - 8 | 10 | - 1 | [41] 3.2.3. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 262 | - 1 | - 17.68% | - 258 | - 174 | | May | - 69 | 39 | - 4.63% | - 56 | - 129 | | September | - 135 | 41 | - 9.09% | - 122 | - 164 | [44] 3.2.4. Coke Inventory Distribution | Coke Inventory Distribution | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 2026 - 01 - 30 | Weekly MoM | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel Mills | 6923,800 tons | 6781,900 tons | 141,900 tons | 0.21% | | Steel Mill Inventory Usable Days | 12.76 days | 12.54 days | 0.22 days | - 3.8% | | Independent Coking Enterprises | 827,400 tons | 843,900 tons | - 16,500 tons | - 47.18% | | Ports | 2.011 million tons | 1.98065 million tons | 30,350 tons | 13.49% | | Tianjin Port | 820,000 tons | 770,000 tons | 50,000 tons | 39.0% | | Qingdao Port | 740,000 tons | 780,000 tons | - 40,000 tons | 4.23% | | Rizhao | 450,000 tons | 430,000 tons | 20,000 tons | - 4.26% | | Total | 9.7622 million tons | 9.60645 million tons | 155,750 tons | - 4.74% | [56]