利多驱动有限，节前偏弱运行：中辉期货钢材周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black commodity market as a whole weakened, with iron ore experiencing the largest decline. Macro - level positive factors are still lacking, and the sharp correction in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors has cooled market sentiment. In terms of supply and demand, from a lunar calendar perspective, rebar production is similar to that of the same period last year, but apparent demand is weaker, and inventory will accumulate more rapidly in the later stage. The raw material end shows the pressure of loose supply. Iron ore inventory continues to rise, and after the logic of steel mill restocking weakens, iron ore faces a supplementary decline. Coking coal faces tightened safety supervision around the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, and the disturbance of Indonesian coal exports also provides a phased boost, but high Mongolian coal imports suppress the rebound space [2]. - The black commodity market faces the pressure of weaker year - on - year rebar demand, high hot - rolled coil inventory, and loose supply at the raw material end. Since rebar has been oscillating in a range, it will face a directional choice later, and there is a possibility of continuing to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to maintain the strategies of hedging on rallies and selling call options for covered writing [2]. - Although the current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is higher than in previous years, it usually widens after the Spring Festival. Due to differences in downstream demand, it may still follow seasonal patterns [3]. - The basis in East China is around 140, and the inventory in Hangzhou is at a relatively high level, with room for contraction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Production - Monthly Data: In December 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative output was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly output of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative output was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly output of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative output was 1446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Steel imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative imports were 6060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. Steel exports were 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative exports were 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [7]. - Weekly Data: As of February 6, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 1,916,800 tons, a decrease of 81,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0%. The weekly consumption was 1,476,400 tons, a decrease of 287,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23%. The inventory was 5,195,700 tons, an increase of 440,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.34%. The weekly output of wire rod was 730,400 tons, a decrease of 33,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1%. The weekly consumption was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 128,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The inventory was 1,057,100 tons, an increase of 112,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil was 3,091,600 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly consumption was 3,055,400 tons, a decrease of 58,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%. The inventory was 3,592,000 tons, an increase of 36,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The weekly output of cold - rolled coil was 888,800 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The weekly consumption was 853,300 tons, a decrease of 69,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.69%. The inventory was 1,584,200 tons, an increase of 35,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.24%. The weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 1,571,400 tons, an increase of 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The weekly consumption was 1,604,000 tons, an increase of 133,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.84%. The inventory was 1,948,500 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.35%. The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8,199,000 tons, a decrease of 32,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.12%. The total weekly consumption was 7,610,000 tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.15%. The total inventory was 13,380,000 tons, an increase of 592,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.95% [8]. - Production Profit: On February 5, 2026, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 103, with a change of 5; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 15, with a change of - 46; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 121, with a change of - 33; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 65, with a change of 5. In North China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 8, with a change of 13; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was 34, with a change of 17; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 40, with a change of 27; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was - 77, with a change of 13. In Central China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 175, with a change of 0; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 33, with a change of 0; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 167, with a change of 0; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 55, with a change of 0 [23]. Steel Demand - Building Materials Consumption: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 10%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 19%. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, from a lunar calendar perspective, the current cement and concrete outbound/shipment volume is still lower than that of the same period last year [30][33]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Consumption: In December, steel exports reached 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high. The export profit of hot - rolled coils has rebounded slightly recently, but the absolute level is low [39]. Steel Inventory - Rebar Inventory: The rebar basis fluctuated this week with little change. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coils, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past patterns, the basis is expected to narrow. From a lunar calendar perspective, the inventory in Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period, and it may decline later [53]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: The hot - rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 0 with little change. The hot - rolled coil inventory has started to accumulate, and the overall level is high, which suppresses the basis [57]. - Rebar Month - Spread: The 5 - 10 month - spread of rebar continues to fluctuate in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory has started to accumulate rapidly, and the high inventory level in Hangzhou makes it difficult for the month - spread to strengthen [60]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread: The 5 - 10 month - spread of hot - rolled coils fluctuates around - 20 with little change [62]. - Spread between Hot - Rolled Coils and Rebar: Although the current spread is higher than in previous years, it usually widens after the Spring Festival. Due to differences in downstream demand, it may still follow seasonal patterns [3].