春节假期临近，建议持币空仓过节：沪铜周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute asset allocation for precious metals, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming demand for green copper. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [96,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [6][96]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The overall macro situation is mixed. With the Spring Festival approaching, market risk - aversion sentiment rises. The traditional off - season leads to weak demand, and the high global visible copper inventory suppresses the upside space of copper prices. Long - position holders are advised to take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the long - run, copper is promising due to its strategic importance and the background of tight copper concentrate and growing green copper demand [6][96]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - In the US, employment data is poor. In January, ADP employment increased by 41,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, and the continuing jobless claims continued to decline, indicating overall stability in the job market. The January manufacturing PMI data shows that the service sector is strong while the manufacturing sector contracts slightly. The US 1 - month CPI and core CPI inflation pressures are generally controllable. The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 97.96, causing pressure on commodities. The Middle - East geopolitical risks are volatile. The US AI stock market has concerns about the bubble, leading to panic selling [15]. - In China, the January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from December 2025, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing economy. On February 5, 2026, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman led to expectations of "interest - rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" policies, causing the US dollar to rebound strongly, precious metals to fall, and the non - ferrous metal sector to decline [16]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Copper Mine Supply: Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned merger negotiations. Southern Copper's production guidance for 2026 - 27 is lower than 2025, increasing concerns about supply shortages. The US plans to start a strategic critical mineral reserve project. Congo (Kinshasa) exported copper to the US for the first time. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached record highs multiple times [53]. - Copper Concentrate Processing Fees: The copper concentrate TC remains at a low level. The 2026 long - term copper concentrate price is 0 US dollars/dry ton, down 21.25 US dollars/dry ton from 2025, indicating a tight supply expectation [54]. - Crude Copper Processing Fees: The processing fees in the south and north regions and for imported crude copper have different price ranges [54]. - Electrolytic Copper Production and Import: In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. Due to smelter maintenance, February production is expected to decline. In 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [56]. - Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference: The scrap - to - refined copper price difference has recovered to a medium - high level, but it has converged recently [56]. - CSPT Consensus: The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing copper smelting capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing malicious competition [56]. 3.3.2 Demand - Copper Processing Enterprises' Operating Rates: The weekly operating rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises is 69.07%, a 0.47% decrease; that of recycled copper rod enterprises is 14.82%, a 0.13% increase; and that of wire and cable enterprises is 60.15%, a 0.69% increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rates of downstream enterprises are expected to decline significantly [77]. - Terminal Industry Copper Consumption Forecast: In 2026, the total copper consumption of various industries is expected to be 1.68 million tons, with a 2.75% year - on - year increase [78]. - Terminal Demand: Green copper demand is high in renewable energy and new - energy vehicles. In the automotive sector, the retail sales of domestic passenger cars and new - energy vehicles in January 2026 have different trends. In the power sector, grid investment increased, and photovoltaic installed capacity grew rapidly. In the home - appliance sector, production increased due to the policy of trade - in of consumer goods [79]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The global visible copper inventory is at a historically high level, hitting a new high since July 2013. The high inventory restricts the upside space of copper prices. Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious stance on the copper market, with short - term risks tilted downward. Only after the Spring Festival in China when the demand recovery signal is clearer in the second half of the second quarter of 2026 may the market have new fluctuations and upward opportunities [93][94].