南华期货天然橡胶产业周报：节前基本面驱动有限，随情绪区间波动为主-20260209

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the fundamentals of rubber present both support and pressure. The upstream raw material has entered the low - production season, with high inventory and imports. The downstream production declines during the long holiday, and the stock - building is coming to an end. Before the holiday, the fundamental drive of rubber weakens, and macro - sentiment plays a dominant role. The price of Shanghai - listed rubber (RU) is mainly determined by future demand, de - stocking expectations, and valuation, and is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The overseas production areas are approaching the low - production season, and the pre - season rush to buy raw materials provides some support. High inventory and future supply expectations suppress prices. The downstream pre - holiday stock - building is nearly over, and the inventory pressure in various links remains. The future depends on the fulfillment of demand expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The upstream of rubber has entered the low - production season, but inventory and imports are high. The downstream production is affected by the holiday, and the stock - building is ending. The fundamental drive of rubber is weakening, and the macro - sentiment dominates. The price of RU is affected by future expectations and macro - sentiment. The overseas pre - low - production - season raw material rush provides support, but high inventory and supply expectations suppress prices. The downstream demand has inventory pressure, and the future demand needs to be verified [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price Range: The short - term reference oscillation range for the main RU contract is 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with the short - term support point at 16,000 yuan/ton. The oscillation range for the main NR contract is 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton, and the important support point is 13,000 yuan/ton [20]. - Trend Judgment: There are both support and pressure in the range. Before the holiday, the tightening liquidity may put pressure on the rubber trend, and the overall situation may maintain an oscillation [20]. - Strategy Suggestions: - Unilateral Strategy: Short - term unilateral observation is recommended. Pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and the fulfillment of demand expectations after the holiday [21]. - Hedging Strategy: It is expected to have large fluctuations. Unilateral trading can be combined with protective options or spread strategies. Deep out - of - the - money options can be sold at high prices [21]. - Basis Strategy: The RU basis is at a high level, and the room for further increase may be limited. The valuation of whole milk may continue the seasonal repair trend, while the futures side should focus on macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends [22]. - Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy: The 5 - 9 spread focuses on the valuation level under low - warehouse receipts. It can refer to the seasonal reverse - spread market. Currently, synthetic rubber is strong, and the 05 contract may remain strong. Hold the reverse - spread position and pay attention to future demand and supply [22]. - Variety Arbitrage Strategy: Observation is recommended [24]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Forecast: The price range forecast for the rubber RU main contract in the next two weeks is 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical percentile of 44.10%. For the 20 - number rubber NR main contract, the price range is 12,400 - 13,500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 20.61% and a historical percentile of 68.66% [27]. - Risk Management Strategy Suggestions: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short - sell rubber futures (RU2605) to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options (RU2605 - P15500) to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options (RU2605 - C16500) to increase sales profits [28]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low standing inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy far - month rubber futures (NR2604 and subsequent contracts), buy out - of - the - money call options (RU2605 - C16750), and sell put options (RU2605 - P15750) to manage raw material price risks [28]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive Information: - China's central bank plans to develop various financial sectors and strengthen financial support in the consumer field [29]. - The US ADP non - farm employment in January was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts [29]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI entered the expansion range, with strong growth in new orders and output [29]. - China's logistics industry prosperity index remained in the expansion range in January [29]. - China's automobile exports in December 2025 increased significantly [30]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's tire enterprises decreased, but some semi - steel tire enterprises were supported by export orders [30]. - The India - EU free trade agreement was reached, which is beneficial to regional rubber demand [30]. - Shanghai launched a project to purchase second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, which may help stabilize the real estate market [30]. - Some domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas are approaching the end of the production season, and there is a probability of an El Nino event in the third quarter of 2026 [31]. - Negative Information: - China's automobile dealer inventory warning index in January was above the boom - bust line [32]. - China's heavy - truck retail sales in January were weak [32]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiations were controversial, increasing the volatility of energy and chemical products [32]. - The Russia - Ukraine negotiations were pending, which may affect the energy supply pattern [33]. - China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in January declined, and economic activities slowed down [33]. - China's natural rubber imports increased in December 2025, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally [33]. - The EU's new car registrations in 2025 were still lower than the pre - pandemic level, and it imposed a mandatory import registration on Chinese tires [34]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus Points - Monitor the weather in rubber - producing areas, especially the winter phenology and the progress of the end of the production season in high - latitude areas [35]. - Pay attention to the impact of butadiene cost changes on the price of butadiene rubber and the price difference with natural rubber [35]. - Track the changes in port and social inventories, the registration of whole - milk warehouse receipts, and the progress of spot digestion [35]. - Observe the holiday shutdown of downstream tire factories and the resumption of work and orders after the holiday [35]. - In terms of macro - aspects, focus on the overall sentiment of commodities, the US January non - farm employment report and CPI data, and the progress of the US - Iran situation and subsequent US sanction policies [36]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: Last week, rubber bulls took profits. Before the holiday, the tightening capital liquidity, the cold spot - market transactions, and the high inventory brought pressure. The price oscillated and declined in a shrinking volume, but there was still support from macro - expectations and the cost side [38]. - Capital Trends: Last week, short positions in Shanghai - listed rubber were reduced, and the profit change was small. Short positions in 20 - number rubber were slightly increased, and the profit slightly rebounded [46]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - Spot Price Changes: The prices of various rubber products showed different degrees of change last week, with some rising and some falling [49]. - Delivery Product Price Trends: The price trends of 20 - number standard rubber delivery products showed certain fluctuations [51]. - Term Structure Analysis: - Basis Changes: The whole - milk basis maintained a regression trend, and the whole - milk - 05 spread showed a positive - spread trend. The price of Vietnamese 3L rubber and RU also showed a positive - spread trend. The basis of some other rubbers also showed corresponding changes [52]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The price of natural rubber fluctuated last week, and the whole - milk inventory decreased during the non - production season, with a relatively strong spot price. The NR inventory accumulation pressure and the import expectation after the first - quarter holiday suppressed the near - month contract price, maintaining a C - shaped structure [63]. - External Market Quotes: - External Market Unilateral Trends: The settlement prices of Tocom RSS3 and Sicom 20 - number rubber showed certain trends [73]. - External Market Calendar Spread Structure: The term structures of Japanese RSS3 and Singapore TSR20 showed different characteristics [75]. - Internal - External Spread: The spread between RU and the Japanese RSS3 futures 05 contract decreased, while the spread between NR and the Singapore standard rubber price increased [76]. - Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index: The macro - environment was warm, driving the recent strong oscillation of rubber. The strengthening of synthetic rubber also drove up the valuation of natural rubber, but the inventory pressure increased the divergence between long and short positions, and the virtual - to - physical ratio was higher than the historical average [81]. - Variety Spread Analysis: - Dry - Rubber Spot Spread: The inventory of dark - colored rubber increased, while the inventory of old whole - milk rubber decreased. The price of whole - milk and Vietnamese light - colored rubber increased, and future attention should be paid to weather changes and post - holiday production and sales [85]. - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Spread: The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber narrowed. The production of butadiene rubber increased, and the price of synthetic rubber was supported by raw materials, while the natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally [100]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw Material Cost: Domestic rubber - producing areas have stopped production. In high - latitude areas at the end of the production season, the rush to buy raw materials supported the price, and the raw material prices in Indonesia and Malaysia remained high [106]. - Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber: Yunnan and Hainan have stopped production. Recently, the selling price of rubber blocks was stable, and the gross profit of tire rubber last week was also stable [123]. - Processing Profit - Imported Rubber: The profit of Thai smoked sheets was stable last week, while the processing and import profits of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubbers first increased significantly and then decreased [125]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 Supply Side - Main - Producing Countries' Production: According to the ANRPC report, the global natural rubber production in December 2025 decreased by 10.8% to 1.416 million tons, and the consumption increased by 2.9% to 1.307 million tons. The production and consumption of different countries showed different trends in 2025 [127][128]. - Domestic Import Situation: In December 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 18.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports in 2025 increased by 16.7% year - on - year [130]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Main - Producing Countries' Total Demand: China's demand rebounded in November. Except for Malaysia and Vietnam, the total demand of other overseas main - producing countries rebounded overall [140]. - Tire Production and Sales Situation: Before the Spring Festival, the production rhythm of downstream tire factories was divided. The overall tire开工率 decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was better than expected due to export orders. The inventory situation of full - steel and semi - steel tires was different, and the tire production and export in December 2025 showed certain characteristics [144]. - Replacement Demand: The prosperity of the domestic logistics industry was stable, but the highway logistics freight rate index declined. The overall demand for road transportation increased steadily, but the long - term growth of freight logistics replacement demand may be restricted by the slowdown of fixed - asset investment [149]. - Matching Demand - Automobiles: The domestic matching demand for automobiles may maintain resilience under policy incentives, but the inventory pressure is increasing. The export of automobiles is strong, especially the export of new - energy passenger cars and semi - trailers [157]. - Matching Demand - Heavy - Duty Trucks and Construction Machinery: The sales of heavy - duty trucks and the output of construction machinery maintained high growth, but the long - term new demand may be restricted by the slowdown of fixed - asset investment. The replacement demand in 2026 may maintain high resilience [160]. - Overseas Tire Production: The tire production in Japan was stable overall, and the tire shipment index in Thailand increased year - on - year, but the performance in the second half of the year was slightly lower than the historical average [162]. - Overseas Tire Demand: The US automobile sales were weak, but the tire imports increased. The European passenger - car production and sales were stable, and the production of medium - and heavy - duty commercial vehicles rebounded in the fourth quarter. The automobile production and export in Japan and South Korea showed different trends [164][165][167]. - Demand for Other Rubber Products: In December 2025, the PMI data of the rubber industry rebounded to the boom range, and the downstream开工率 of rubber products improved. The开工率 of domestic conveyor belts continued to rebound, while the开工率 of rubber hoses decreased slightly in January [170]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures Inventory: As of February 6, 2025, the rubber warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1,140 tons week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2,621 tons week - on - week [172]. - Social Inventory: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.72 million tons month - on - month, with different growth rates in bonded and general - trade inventories. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [174].