长江期货养殖产业周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Pig Industry: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand, and the price is not optimistic. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply in the first half of 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year, and the price after the Spring Festival may be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][51]. - Egg Industry: Currently, supply is strong and demand is weak, with the near - term contract being weak and the far - term contract being strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow, and one should not be overly optimistic [5][79]. - Corn Industry: In the short - term, the market is balanced in terms of purchase and sales, and the price is expected to remain high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the upside space [7][110]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the national spot price was 12.05 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.72 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg from last week; the pig 2605 contract closed at 11,625 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week; the 05 contract basis was 1,095 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly national pig price first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity moving down [4][51]. 3.1.2 Supply Side - The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September 2025 and the capacity reduction accelerated in October. However, due to previous profits, the anti - loss ability increased, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turned positive in December, so the capacity reduction slowed down. The inventory of breeding sows in December was still above the normal level of 39 million. In the first half of 2026, the supply will remain high, and it will decrease marginally after August but remain in a balanced state. According to piglet and feed data, the supply pressure in the first half of the year is still large [4][51]. 3.1.3 Demand Side - The weekly slaughtering start - up rate and slaughter volume first increased, then decreased, and then increased again, slowly rising. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand improved, but was briefly affected by the sharp drop in pig prices in the middle of the week. The weekly fresh - sales rate increased slightly, and the frozen - product inventory digestion was slow, with the frozen - product storage rate decreasing slightly [4][51]. 3.1.4 Cost Side - The weekly piglet price fluctuated slightly, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self - breeding and self - raising profit narrowed, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding turned negative. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs for 5 months decreased compared with last week [4][51]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, both supply and demand increase, and the price is not optimistic. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply in the first half of the year increases year - on - year, and the price may be under pressure after the Spring Festival if the inventory is not effectively reduced. The price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][51]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, for near - month off - season contracts, partially close short positions after the price drops and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. For far - month contracts, be cautious about bullish views, and the industry can hedge at high prices when there is profit before the capacity is effectively reduced [4][51]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 4 yuan/jin, down 0.56 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 4.02 yuan/jin, down 0.55 yuan/jin from last Friday; the main egg 2603 contract closed at 2,904 yuan/500 kg, down 98 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 84 yuan/500 kg, 702 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday. The weekly egg price dropped significantly [5][79]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - The inventory of laying hens in January 2026 was at a historical high. The newly - opened laying hens in February corresponded to the replenishment in September 2025, with both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The current egg price drop has increased the farmers' enthusiasm for culling, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the culling of old hens is difficult, and the inventory remains high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow [5][79]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price has risen to a relatively high level, and the procurement demand of channels has decreased significantly. The demand in different regions has diverged, and the substitution demand at the terminal has weakened. The inventory in production and circulation links has increased [5][79]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - Currently, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is in a weak shock. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow [5][79]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - For non - holders, be cautious about shorting; for holders, hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts at high prices after a rebound [5][79]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn 2603 contract closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 61 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday. The weekly national corn price was slightly weak [7][110]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - The national grass - roots grain sales reached 61%, and the post - festival sales pressure may be small. The import of corn in December was 800,000 tons, a significant increase year - on - year. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [7][110]. 3.3.3 Demand Side - The inventory of breeding sows is slowly decreasing, and the poultry inventory is also slowly declining. The current high inventory supports the rigid demand for feed. The deep - processing profit is in a loss state, which limits the increase in deep - processing demand [7][110]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the market is balanced in terms of purchase and sales, and the price is expected to remain high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the upside space [7][110]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, the spot market is balanced, and the futures price fluctuates within a range. Grain - holding entities can hedge at high prices after a rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the increase in price [7][110].