浆纸继续累库，市场走势偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market continues to have a situation of oversupply. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp has increased, and port inventories have been accumulating for five consecutive weeks. The downstream paper mills' procurement is almost stagnant, and overall demand support is weak [5]. - The supply - demand of double - offset paper maintains a weak balance. Supply has increased, but downstream consumption is flat, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been effectively alleviated. Its valuation is at a low level, and short - term trading is light due to the Spring Festival [5]. - Pulp valuation shows a weak shock trend. In the short term, there is a lack of positive support, and in the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and restocking rhythm after the festival and port destocking [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: The pulp market has an oversupply pattern, and the double - offset paper market has a weak supply - demand balance. Pulp valuation is weak, and double - offset paper valuation is at a low level [5]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, the main idea is to short SP2505 and be bearish on OP2502; for arbitrage, mainly wait and see, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage; for options, wait and see for SP options and sell OP2602 - C - 4250 [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Pulp Market: The supply of domestic broadleaf pulp is 24.9 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons), and chemical mechanical pulp slightly increases by 0.2 tons. Port inventories have accumulated to 218.2 tons, and downstream paper mills' procurement is almost stagnant [5]. - Double - Offset Paper: Production is 20.1 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.5%), capacity utilization is 51.4%. Downstream consumption is flat, and enterprise inventories are 142.2 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.1%) [5]. - Pulp Valuation: It is in a weak shock state, with core pressure from pre - festival demand stagnation and continuous port inventory accumulation [5]. - Double - Offset Paper Valuation: It is at a low level, with supply abundance and weak demand as core constraints. Short - term trading is light, and long - term improvement depends on the optimization of the supply - demand pattern [5]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - Double - Offset Paper: Production is 20.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4 tons (7.5%), and capacity utilization is 51.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The weekly average profit is - 483.8 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin drops by 1.2 percentage points [9]. - Coated Paper: Production is 8.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons (1.2%), and capacity utilization is 62.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. The weekly average profit is - 5.5 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin rises by 1.1 percentage points [17]. - Domestic Pulp: The production of broadleaf pulp is 24.9 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons from last week. The production profit margin is relatively stable [25]. - Wood Pulp: The market price of chemical mechanical pulp is 2575 yuan/ton, remaining flat. As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of mainstream port samples is 218.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 tons (0.6%) [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Double - Offset Paper: The production enterprise inventory is 142.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. It is expected to continue increasing in the next cycle [13]. - Coated Paper: The production enterprise inventory is 39.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. It is expected to continue increasing in the next cycle [22]. - Life - Use Paper: The production is 29.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%. The inventory is 63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%, and the inventory days are 20.52 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.15% [33]. - White Cardboard: The production is 35.0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 tons (5.74%). The production factory inventory is 104.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 tons (0.19%) [36]. 3.3.3 Price - Double - Offset Paper: The enterprise average price of 70g double - offset paper is 4571.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% [44]. - Coated Paper: The enterprise average price of 157g coated paper is 4903.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [44]. - Imported Pulp: The average spot price of coniferous pulp is 5331 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the average spot price of broadleaf pulp is 4600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%; the average spot price of chemical mechanical pulp is 3800 yuan/ton, remaining flat; the average spot price of natural color pulp is 4950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [48].