固收周报（2026.01.26-2026.01.30）：把握套息与久期机会-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market shows a differentiated pattern of "slight upward movement in the short - end and oscillatory downward movement in the long - end", with the long - end performing stronger than the short - end, influenced by central bank liquidity support, weak fundamental data, and equity market fluctuations [1][4][71] - The allocation demand for ultra - long - term government bonds and credit bonds may continue to be released, and the bond market may maintain an oscillatory and relatively strong trend [4][71] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - rate Bonds 1.1 Liquidity Observation - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the central bank conducted 29,365.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 16,177.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 13,188.00 billion yuan [1][15] - Most inter - bank capital prices rose, while DR001 decreased by 7.06BP to 1.3277%, and DR007 increased by 9.91BP to 1.5926%. Exchange capital prices rose, with overnight GC001 increasing by 25.40BP to 1.6290% and GC007 increasing by 3.30BP to 1.6140% [1][15] 1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,242.75 billion yuan, with a total repayment of 2,437.60 billion yuan for matured bonds, and a net financing of 3,805.14 billion yuan [1][28] - There was no issuance of government bonds. Policy financial bonds raised 1,850.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance increased, raising 4,392.75 billion yuan [28] 1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Most government bond yields declined. From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds decreased by 2.09BP, 2.04BP, 1.82BP, and 1.86BP respectively to 1.4014%, 1.5761%, 1.6759%, and 1.8112%, while the 1 - year yield increased by 1.80BP to 1.2999%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 54.79BP to 51.13BP [1][34][35] - The yields of state - owned development bank bonds showed mixed trends. The 3 - year and 7 - year yields decreased by 0.88BP and 0.30BP respectively to 1.6922% and 1.9192%, while the 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 0.74BP, 0.15BP, and 1.30BP respectively to 1.5833%, 1.7953%, and 1.9865%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 39.76BP to 40.32BP [35] 2. Credit Bonds 2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, 806 new credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 7,977.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,063.11 billion yuan from the previous period. The total repayment of credit bonds was 6,820.02 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1,157.75 billion yuan [2][46] - By bond issuance type, corporate bonds accounted for the largest proportion of the total number of credit bond issuances. By bond rating, AAA - rated bonds had an issuance scale of 2,824.82 billion yuan, accounting for 67.09% of the total issuance. In terms of maturity, credit bond issuance was mainly within 1 year. By industry, the construction industry had the largest number of bond issuances [2][49] 2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Most urban investment bond yields declined. From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the 5 - year yield of AA - rated urban investment bonds decreased by the largest margin of 6.32BP [2][56] - The yields of medium - and short - term notes showed mixed trends. The 3 - year yields of AA and AA - rated medium - and short - term notes decreased by the largest margin of 4.05BP [2][56] 2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [58] 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Most European and American Stock Indices Declined - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, most of the three major US stock indices declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42% for the week, the S&P 500 index rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.17%, closing at 48,892.47, 6,939.03, and 23,461.82 points respectively [3][59] - Most of the three major European stock indices declined. The German DAX index fell 1.45% for the week, the French CAC40 index fell 0.20%, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.79%, closing at 24,538.81, 8,126.53, and 10,223.54 points respectively [3][60] - Asian - Pacific stock indices showed mixed trends. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.97% for the week, closing at 53,322.85 points; the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, closing at 4,117.95 points; the South Korean Composite Index rose 4.70%, closing at 5,224.36 points; the Russian index rose 0.45%, closing at 1,157.53 points [60] 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Declined - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year US Treasury yields decreased by 5.00BP, 7.00BP, 5.00BP, and 2.00BP respectively to 3.48%, 3.60%, 3.79%, and 4.01%, while the 10 - year yield increased by 2.00BP to 4.26%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 7.00BP to 78.00BP [62] 3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Strengthened - The US dollar index fell 0.40% for the week, and non - US currencies strengthened. From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the British pound against the US dollar rose 0.30% to 1.3686, the euro against the US dollar rose 0.20% to 1.1851, the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell 0.61% to 154.7745, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.18% to 6.9478 [65] 3.4 Crude Oil Strengthened, and Gold Futures Declined - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the COMEX gold futures price fell 1.14% for the week, closing at 4,879.60 US dollars per ounce; the London spot gold price rose 0.72%, closing at 4,981.85 US dollars per ounce. The Brent crude oil price rose 7.30% for the week, closing at 70.69 US dollars per barrel; the WTI crude oil price rose 6.78%, closing at 65.21 US dollars per barrel [67] 4. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a portfolio of "medium - and short - duration credit bonds + long - duration interest - rate bonds" to enjoy the coupon income of credit bonds and hedge against inflation expectations through long - duration interest - rate bonds [4][71]