玉米周报：玉米购销进入尾声，盘面窄幅震荡-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment outlook for the corn industry is "oscillating," with short - term expectations for the corn futures market to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to remain range - bound, with attention to factors such as the pressure of ground - stored grain sales, policy grain release policies, import policies, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. 2. Report's Core View - The current corn purchase and sales are nearing the end, and the futures market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply side is bullish, the demand side is neutral - bearish, inventory is neutral - bearish, basis/spread is bullish, profit is neutral - bullish, and valuation is neutral. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and after the Spring Festival [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. The current grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level has exceeded 60%, faster than the same period last year. There may be some selling pressure around the Spring Festival, but this year's grain quality is relatively dry, and the inventories of mid - and downstream enterprises are low, so the expected impact of selling pressure is limited. The planting cost in the 25/26 season decreased, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the country as a whole is expected to have a bumper harvest. The expected rent cost for corn planting in the 26/27 season is rising (for example, in Heilongjiang, it is expected to rise by 200 yuan per mu) [5]. - Demand: Neutral - bearish. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory and weight are at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious yet. The egg - poultry farming profit has recovered, and the speed of culling laying hens has slowed down. The short - term feed demand for corn is still supported. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the long - term feed demand is expected to shrink. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories have increased significantly, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Traders have not built large - scale strategic inventories and have a certain demand for replenishing stocks [5]. - Inventory: Neutral - bearish. The domestic trade corn inventories at the north and south ports have increased month - on - month and are still at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased month - on - month [5]. - Basis/Spread: Bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level [5]. - Profit: Neutral - bullish. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, the meat - poultry farming has a small profit, and the egg - poultry farming profit has recovered. The deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are in the red [5]. - Valuation: Neutral. Considering the basis, the valuation of the corn futures market is moderately low [5]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Pre - festival stocking is nearing the end, and the corn futures market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, but this year's grain in the Northeast is relatively dry, and supported by the rigid demand for replenishing stocks of mid - and downstream enterprises, the expected selling pressure is limited. In addition, attention should be paid to post - festival policy grain release policies, import policy changes, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, expect range - bound movement; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the main corn futures contract, the average prices in different markets (such as Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), the open interest trends of different corn futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 09), and the spreads between different contracts (C03 - C05, C05 - C09) [7][8][13]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Grain - Selling Progress: Charts show the grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China [23]. - Port and Processing Data: Include the arrival volume of corn at northern ports, the remaining number of vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong, the price difference between Shekou Port and Jinzhou Port, the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports, etc. [25][28]. - Import Data: The import of grains in January and February decreased, and the import profit of US corn was at a high level. Charts show the monthly import volumes of sorghum, corn, and barley in China, as well as the theoretical import profit of US Gulf corn [33][34]. - Inventory Data: The corn inventories at the north and south ports are at a low level. Data on the inventories of feed enterprises, deep - processing enterprises, and different ports (such as Guangdong Port) are presented, as well as the inventory days of feed enterprises and the monthly feed production volume [40][47][49]. - Livestock and Poultry Farming Data: Include the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the profit of purchasing and fattening pigs, the average price and weight of commercial pig slaughter, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers, the in - production inventory of parent - stock chickens, the egg - chicken farming profit, the age of culled laying hens, etc. [51][59][65]. - Deep - Processing Data: Deep - processing corn consumption has declined, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased significantly. The processing profit of starch is in the red, and starch inventories are being depleted. The开机 rate of alcohol has declined, and the processing profit is at a low level. There are also data on the开机 rate and profit of related downstream industries such as beverages, paper - making [68][73][97]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - January Report: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The report shows the corn stock - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [116]. - Export Data: US corn export sales have performed well, and the report presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn [123].