纸浆周报：纸浆缺乏利多叙事，期货震荡偏空看待-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report views pulp futures as oscillating with a downward bias, lacking positive narratives [1] Core Viewpoints - The main trading logic of pulp futures is the regression to the value of warehouse receipts in the absence of new positive factors. The "strong hardwood, weak softwood" pattern persists. The supply - tight situation of hardwood pulp has eased slightly, but there are still tight expectations. The demand side lacks positive drivers. After the "strong supply - side expectation" is falsified, the futures mainly return to the "weak reality", and the current futures price may gradually regress to the actual delivery value of futures warehouse receipts [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply and Inventory: The supply - tight situation of hardwood pulp has eased, and port inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, but the "strong hardwood, weak softwood" pattern remains. In January 2026, the shipment of hardwood pulp from three South American countries to China was 1.075 million tons, a 12% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year decrease. In February 2026, Arauco's softwood pulp offer was $710/ton (unchanged), and the hardwood pulp Star offer was $600/ton, up $10/ton [3] - Demand: The prices of the four major wood - pulp papers did not change significantly this week. Most factories' pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. In January 2026, the output of the four major wood - pulp papers in China was 4.1 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease and 28.3% year - on - year increase, mainly due to Chenming Paper's resumption of production. Seasonally, paper mills are likely to issue price - increase letters after the festival, but the implementation may be poor, and the demand side lacks positive drivers [3] - Summary and Strategy: After the "strong supply - side expectation" is falsified by the flat offer of the new round of softwood pulp, the futures mainly return to the "weak reality", and the current futures price may gradually regress to the actual delivery value of futures warehouse receipts [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Pulp futures continued to be weak this week. Hardwood pulp prices were stable at 4,550 yuan/ton, and the softwood pulp basis weakened slightly. With port inventories rising for five consecutive weeks, pulp futures lack positive drivers and the macro sentiment has weakened, so they are expected to remain weak next week [9] - Spot Market: The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of softwood pulp Ussuri was 5,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,550 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [16] - Foreign Offers: In February, the foreign offer of softwood pulp was flat, while the price of hardwood pulp increased. Arauco's softwood pulp offer in February was $710/ton (unchanged); the hardwood pulp Star offer was $600/ton, up $10/ton; and the natural pulp Venus offer was $620/ton (unchanged) [19] - Open Interest: As of February 9, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 385,128 lots, a 3% increase from last week; the open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 287,362 lots, a 4% increase from last week [21] Part Three: Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Imports: In December, the import volume of hardwood chips increased significantly. In January 2026, the total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a 23.99% increase. The softwood pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, a 4.92% increase, and the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, a 33.88% increase [5] - Inventory: Pulp port inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks. Overseas pulp mill inventory days were basically stable in November 2025. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 49 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days [31][37] - Downstream Demand: As of February 6, 2026, the prices of the four major wood - pulp papers were stable, and their gross profit margins increased slightly week - on - week. In January 2026, the output of some paper products decreased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of some paper products increased month - on - month. For example, the double - offset paper inventory was 1.915 million tons, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease and a 15.72% year - on - year increase [40][47][55] - Overseas Market: In December 2025, European pulp demand decreased, with softwood pulp demand at 198,600 tons (a 7.1% month - on - month and 8.3% year - on - year decrease) and hardwood pulp demand at 476,000 tons (a 11.59% month - on - month decrease and a 2.55% year - on - year increase). European pulp inventories started to accumulate again, with softwood pulp inventory at 222,800 tons (a 6.93% month - on - month and 0.71% year - on - year increase) and hardwood pulp inventory at 493,800 tons (a 9.59% month - on - month and 15.53% year - on - year increase) [77] - Spreads: As of February 7, 2026, the softwood pulp basis weakened slightly, with the Shandong Silver Star basis at - 4 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the Shandong Goldfish basis was - 684 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton increase from last week. The 5 - 9 spread was flat at - 44 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [83]