内外棉价回落，基差涨势明显

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the cotton price will be volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The report does not explicitly provide a traditional investment rating such as "buy", "hold", or "sell" [3]. Core Viewpoints - The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and combined with water resource constraints and food planting requirements, the supply contraction expectation is clear. Although the spinning profit has declined month-on-month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the purchasing intention of yarn mills. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating. The new cotton basis for pre - sale before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years. The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and supply contraction is expected due to water resource constraints and food planting requirements [3]. - Demand: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which helps maintain the purchasing intention of yarn mills [3]. - Inventory: As new cotton is listed in large quantities, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating [3]. - Basis/Spread: The basis for pre - sale of new cotton delivered before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week [3]. - Profit: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the operation of yarn mills [3]. - Valuation: The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3]. - Macro and Policy: The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. - Investment View: The short - term cotton price is volatile with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 year is the core theme, and attention should be paid to the extrusion of cotton yarn imports and the implementation rhythm of policies [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - US Textile and Apparel Imports: The import structure is being re - configured. The report presents the monthly import volume data of US clothing and accessories from multiple countries including the world, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, and China from 2020 - 2025 [5][6][8]. - EU Textile and Apparel Imports: Mainly from China and Bangladesh, with a slight year - on - year increase [12]. - Upstream Supply: The inspection progress is faster than the same period [20]. - Imports: Cotton imports are restricted, while cotton yarn imports are increasing [27]. - Upstream Inventory: Seasonally rising [34]. - Mid - stream Inventory: Finished products are seasonally destocking [42]. - Mid - stream Factory Load: The resumption of operation is slow [51]. - Mid - stream Yarn Mill Profit: Overall, losses are narrowing, and Xinjiang is profitable [56]. - Terminal Consumption: Exports are deteriorating [62]. - US Cotton Market: The annual processing volume data from 2020 - 2025 is presented. US cotton exports (signing and shipping) are slightly increasing year - on - year, and exports to China are sporadic. The US textile and apparel inventory is at a high level, and retail sales are increasing year - on - year [80][82][89][94]. - Brazilian Supply: The total export volume is increasing, but the proportion of exports to China is decreasing [97]. - Indian Supply: The window for importing Indian cotton yarn is open [100]. - Australian Supply: Exports to China remain at a high level [104]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - Zhengzhou Cotton Basis: Fluctuating at a high level [110]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Position: The position of the 05 contract is relatively high year - on - year [120]. - Managed Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures: Data from 2018 - 2026 is presented, including net long positions and long - position ratios [129]. - US Cotton 03 - 05 Spread: Data from 2021 - 2026 is presented [130].