南华期货鸡蛋产业周报：市场交易节后淡季-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the egg market last week was the intense game between the strong reality of pre - holiday stocking and the pessimistic expectation of the post - holiday off - season, leading to severe "futures - spot divergence." As stocking ended and spot prices fell, the market's dominant logic shifted from "reality" to "expectation" [1] - The near - end trading logic is that after the pre - holiday stocking ends, demand decreases, and the market trades the post - holiday off - season. Also, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment [3][4] - The far - end trading logic includes increased farmers' willingness to cull old chickens as spot prices decline, market expectations of improved demand driven by festival stocking in the second and third quarters, and the impact of accelerated chick replenishment on egg production in 4 - 5 months due to rising chick prices [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The pre - holiday strong demand for stocking and the post - holiday pessimistic demand expectation led to "futures - spot divergence." Spot prices remained firm due to short - term demand, while futures contracts were deeply discounted. The end of stocking and the decline in spot prices marked the start of the resolution of this contradiction [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - Trend Judgment: The pre - holiday stocking demand has ended, and the market is trading the post - holiday demand off - season [10] - Price Range: It will fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [10] - Unilateral Strategy: Enter the market with a light long position when the price drops to around 2900 and take profit when it reaches around 3100 [10] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - Egg Price Range Prediction: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 31.95% [11] - Risk Management Strategy for Egg Enterprises: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting egg futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract codes, trading directions, and recommended ratios provided [13] 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive Information: As of the end of January, the inventory days in the production and circulation links were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, providing room for price increases [14] - Negative Information: In February, market demand is gradually weakening as food processing enterprises and schools are on holiday. Egg supply is still relatively abundant, and the egg price is expected to decline by 0.90 - 1.00 yuan/jin. The concentrated procurement of food enterprises, e - commerce, and traders is basically completed, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has decreased [14] 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [15] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the opening price of the main egg 03 contract was 3002 yuan/500KG, and the closing price was 2904 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 3.26%. The position was 149,000 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots compared with last week [15] 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure Analysis - Calendar Spread Structure: The egg calendar spread generally shows a contango structure [18] - Basis Structure: After the end of stocking demand, the decline in egg spot prices is greater than that in futures prices, leading to a narrowing of the basis [20] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the egg - laying hen farming profit is gradually turning into a loss due to price decline, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens is increasing. This week's farming profit decreased compared with last week. Feed prices remained stable, corn prices fluctuated at a high level, and the farming cost remained the same as last week [24] 3.5 This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - Egg - Laying Hen Inventory: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered laying hens decreased. The egg - laying rate remained the same as last month [27] - Chick Situation: In January, the chick sales volume increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.16% [30] - Chicken Culling Situation: There are differences in the chicken culling data between Zhuochuang and Ganglian. Zhuochuang's monthly chicken culling decreased, while Ganglian's chicken culling volume has been increasing this month, and the market's divergence on the data is increasing [33] 3.5.2 Consumption Situation - This week, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas decreased compared with last week, and the egg arrival volume in the Guangdong wholesale market increased [36] 3.5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment, with the available inventory days being 1.44 days and 1.77 days respectively [38]