美元债双周报（26年第6周）：景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform", and it remains unchanged [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy showed improved prosperity at the beginning of the year, but the employment recovery was weak and cost pressures were rising, with prominent structural characteristics [1] - Market risk - aversion sentiment increased, but the demand for US Treasuries was not strong. The market's deep - seated concerns about US fiscal policies led to investors' reluctance to hold long - term bonds [2] - The US dollar index rebounded in the short term, but its long - term trend was still downward. The credit spread in the corporate bond market rose, indicating more cautious risk pricing [2] - The financial market focused on the upcoming release of CPI and non - farm employment data. The labor market was in a "low recruitment, low lay - off" stagnant state, and the CPI was expected to rise 2.7% year - on - year in January [3] - It is recommended to adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration in the US Treasury market, focusing on 3 - 5 - year investment - grade bonds and strictly controlling the exposure to US Treasuries over 10 years [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The manufacturing and service industries in the US showed a synchronous recovery in prosperity, but there were problems such as slow employment recovery and rising cost pressures [1] - The market was concerned about the impact of the Fed's leadership change on liquidity and the influence of AI on software, leading to a sell - off, but the increase in US Treasury prices was mild, and the yield curve steepened significantly [2] - The market focused on the 1 - month non - farm and CPI data to be released this week. The non - farm employment market was expected to add 60,000 new jobs, and the CPI was expected to rise 2.7% year - on - year in January [3] 3.2 Exchange Rate - The US dollar index (DXY) was basically flat this week, rebounding about 1.6% from last week's low, but it had still fallen nearly 10% in the past 12 months, maintaining a weak pattern [2] 3.3 Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), as well as the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds [68][71] 3.4 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 11 rating adjustment actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 1 rating revocation, 4 rating upgrades, and 6 initial ratings [76]