南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：降雨分布不均匀，马来半岛南部依然面临干旱困扰

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Since the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was -0.55 as of the end of December 2025. The La Niña phenomenon persists, but its intensity is weak, so the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has no obvious deviation, and currently has limited impact on palm oil producing areas [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has slightly recovered, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. There is sporadic rainfall in the Malay Peninsula, mostly in the northern region [1]. - The soil moisture in the southern part of the Malay Peninsula is still dry, and there is no possibility of improvement in March and April. However, the rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak is acceptable, and the soil moisture is good across the country, with no drought concerns. Overall, the impact on production should be limited [2]. - In Indonesia, rainfall has recovered in most areas this week, but the soil moisture in Riau and West Kalimantan is decreasing. If there is no improvement in subsequent rainfall, there may be a drought risk in March and April [2]. - There is little short - term rainfall, and there are no severe weather disasters such as rainstorms. Continued attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year. However, if the weather in other areas is favorable for production, the overall production in the whole region is still optimistic [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather and Phenomenon - The Southern Oscillation Index has been above the threshold of 1 since the end of 2025 and remained so until the end of January 2026. The El Niño index was -0.55 as of the end of December 2025. The La Niña phenomenon persists with weak intensity, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has no obvious deviation [1]. Rainfall Distribution - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has slightly recovered, mainly in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The Malay Peninsula has sporadic rainfall, mostly in the north [1]. Soil Moisture - The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has dry soil moisture, with no improvement expected in March and April. Sabah and Sarawak have good soil moisture with no drought concerns [2]. - In Indonesia, most areas have recovered rainfall, but Riau and West Kalimantan have decreasing soil moisture, with potential drought risks in March and April if rainfall does not improve [2]. Production Outlook - If the soil moisture in lagging areas does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year. However, if other areas have favorable weather, the overall production in the whole region is still optimistic [2]. Specific Palm Oil Producing Areas Indonesia - Jambi: Rainfall has slightly improved in February, and soil moisture is expected to rise [23]. - West Kalimantan: Rainfall has increased, but soil conditions are average [31]. - Central Kalimantan: Rainfall shows an increasing trend, and soil moisture is being restored [40]. - East Kalimantan: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture is being restored [47]. - Riau: Rainfall improvement is limited, and soil moisture continues to decline [55]. - South Sumatra: Rainfall has increased, and soil moisture may improve [60]. - North Sumatra: Rainfall is expected to recover, and soil moisture has not further deteriorated [67]. Malaysia - Johor: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture continues to decline [75]. - Pahang: Rainfall is still scarce, and soil moisture improvement is insufficient [81]. - Perak: Rainfall has slightly recovered in February, which may avoid further drought [88]. - Sabah: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [94]. - Sarawak: Rainfall in February is acceptable, and soil moisture may rise [101].