钢材：市场成交平淡，节前震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market entered a typical pre - Spring Festival operation mode with small price fluctuations and a marginal weakening in fundamentals. The market has prematurely entered a holiday state, with trading statistics suspended and inventory continuously accumulating. Raw material prices are under pressure, especially the iron ore price which has corrected from its high level [1]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the steel industry will face dual pressures of high inventory and weak demand. The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry supports the supply - demand balance of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products, but the demand for construction steel is weak due to the sluggish real estate market and slow resumption of work. On the supply side, the resumption of production is slow and the increase is limited due to low profits and order pressure. With significant inventory pressure and difficulty in destocking, although macro - policies provide support, the willingness for winter storage is low and speculative demand is lacking, so there is insufficient impetus for steel prices to rise. It is expected that the post - holiday market price will decline moderately, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in mid - to late March [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Market situation: The market entered a pre - Spring Festival mode this week, with small price fluctuations, marginal weakening in fundamentals, suspended trading statistics, and continuous inventory accumulation. Raw material prices, especially iron ore, are under pressure [1]. - Outlook: After the Spring Festival in 2026, the steel industry faces high inventory and weak demand. Manufacturing steel demand supports hot - rolled and cold - rolled products, but construction steel demand recovers slowly. Supply - side production resumption is slow, inventory pressure is high, and steel prices are expected to decline moderately [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal output increased by 0.6 tons to 228.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [2]. - Rebar steel mill inventory increased by 4.52 tons to 153.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.03% [2]. - Rebar social inventory increased by 39.52 tons to 365.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.11% [2]. - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 tons to 78.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.94% [2]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2.12 tons to 280.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% [2].