宏观与大宗商品周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market has been in a high - volatility state in the past week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI has resurfaced, and the sharp correction of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals led by silver has impacted asset prices and raised investors' risk - aversion sentiment. In the domestic market, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, futures exchanges have announced margin hikes, leading to a significant outflow of funds from the futures market [5][10]. - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in March, with a probability of 82.3%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The capital market was highly volatile last week, with a collective correction. Overseas, the AI divergence affected asset prices. In the domestic market, the approaching Spring Festival led to margin hikes and a large - scale outflow of futures market funds. The BDI index dropped sharply, and most commodities corrected. The domestic bond market rebounded, while the stock index and most commodity categories declined. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals with a - 5.07% drop. The energy - chemical sector was dragged down by the fall in crude oil prices, and coal - coking - steel and oilseeds also had notable declines. Agricultural products showed mixed performance [5][16]. - In terms of the futures market's capital flow, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors saw the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows. The volatility of the international CRB commodity index and domestic commodity indices increased. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [6]. - The market's focus in the next week will be on the US non - farm payrolls report and CPI data. The non - farm payrolls report may adjust up to 1 million employment data. The market expects non - farm employment growth in January to be in the range of 60,000 - 80,000. China's January inflation and money supply data are also expected to be released next week. The Middle East situation seems to be stabilizing, with indirect talks between the US and Iran [7]. Large - scale Assets - The capital market was highly volatile last week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI affected asset prices and raised risk - aversion sentiment. The VIX index rose slightly, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained stable. Both the US and Chinese stock markets were under pressure. In the domestic market, due to the Spring Festival, futures exchanges raised margins, leading to a large - scale outflow of funds from the futures market. The BDI index dropped, and most commodities corrected [10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market rebounded, the stock index declined, and most commodity categories were weak. The growth - style stocks performed significantly worse than the value - style stocks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both fell by more than - 2%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by about - 1%. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals, and the energy - chemical sector was affected by the fall in crude oil prices [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors had the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows [18]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined with large margins last week. The top - rising commodity futures were polysilicon, alumina, and glass, while the top - falling ones were Shanghai silver, platinum, and Shanghai tin [22]. Fluctuation Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index increased, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and Nanhua commodity index both increased significantly. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [25]. Macro Logic - The stock index was weak and declined across the board last week. Growth - style stocks had larger fluctuations and deeper declines. The valuation of the stock index was under pressure, and the equity risk premium (ERP) rebounded from a low level [32]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and the inflation expectation declined slightly under pressure [35]. - The US bond yield declined overall, the term structure was stable, the term spread fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" fluctuated, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US bonds widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [57]. Data Tracking - Most international major commodities declined, the BDI index dropped sharply, the CRB index fell, soybeans and corn rose slightly, and gold, silver, copper, and oil all declined. The silver price plunged, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded sharply from a low level [28]. - The asphalt开工率 declined seasonally, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates decreased, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [44]. - The US bond interest rate decreased, the China - US interest rate spread rebounded, the inflation expectation rose and then fell, the financial conditions showed signs of bottoming out, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB was strong [55]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in March, with a probability of 82.3% (slightly lower than last week's 87.3%). The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% increased slightly to 17.7%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [65]. This Week's Focus - Monday (February 9): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index. - Tuesday (February 10): US December retail sales data, US December import price index. - Wednesday (February 11): China's January CPI, US January non - farm payrolls report. - Thursday (February 12): UK Q4 GDP preliminary value. - Friday (February 13): US January CPI. - Other: The People's Bank of China is expected to announce January money supply data during the week [70].