沥青周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of asphalt is weak in the short - term. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][20] - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [3] - This week, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt start - up rate increased slightly from a low level [3] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of February 6, approaching the Spring Festival, the start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week [3][29] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transport from January to December was - 6.0%, a further decline from - 4.7% from January to November. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, a further decline from - 1.1% from January to November [29] - After the price increase in Shandong last week, the terminal demand was weak, and the shipment volume decreased significantly. The national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3][25] 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [34] 3.4 Price - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [16] 3.5 Impact of Raw Materials - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. Large trader Vitol China quotes Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5/barrel, much smaller than the $13/barrel discount in December 2025. Indian Oil executives said that Venezuelan oil is quoted at a discount of $4 - 5/barrel compared with Dubai crude oil. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. Attention should be paid to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [3] - It is expected that domestic refineries still have raw material inventory available before March. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile. The US has reduced the tariffs imposed on India. Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, and the crude oil price has rebounded slightly [3]