美元债双周报（26年第6周）：气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Underperform" for the US stock market [4] Core Viewpoints - The US economy's prosperity improved at the beginning of the year, but employment recovery was weak and cost pressure increased, with prominent structural characteristics [1] - Market risk - aversion sentiment rose, but the demand for US Treasuries was not strong. The yield curve steepened significantly, and concerns about US fiscal policy overshadowed the safe - haven demand for long - term Treasuries [2] - The US dollar index rebounded in the short term but remained in a long - term downward trend. The credit spread in the corporate bond market increased, and market sentiment cooled but was far from panic [2] - The market focused on the upcoming CPI and non - farm employment data. The labor market was in a "low recruitment, low lay - off" stagnant state, and the CPI was expected to rise 2.7% year - on - year in January [3] - It is recommended to adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration in the US Treasury market, focusing on 3 - 5 - year investment - grade bonds and strictly controlling the exposure to US Treasuries over 10 years [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The manufacturing and service industry PMIs in the US showed that the economy's kinetic energy improved significantly in January. The manufacturing PMI jumped from 47.9 to 52.6, and the service industry PMI remained at 53.8. However, employment and cost issues were prominent [1] - Market risk - aversion sentiment rose, but funds did not flow into long - term US Treasuries in large quantities. The 10 - year - 2 - year term spread approached multi - year highs [2] - The US dollar index rebounded about 1.6% from last week's low this week but fell nearly 10% in the past 12 months [2] - The credit spread in the corporate bond market increased from recent lows but was still at a healthier level compared to the one - year high [2] - The market focused on the 1 - month non - farm and CPI data to be released this week. The non - farm employment market was expected to add 60,000 people, and the CPI was expected to rise 2.7% year - on - year in January [3] Exchange Rate - The US dollar index (DXY) rebounded about 1.6% from last week's low this week but was still down nearly 10% in the past 12 months, maintaining a weak pattern [2] Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows some charts about the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023, including by grade and industry, as well as the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds [68][71] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 11 rating adjustment actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 1 rating revocation, 4 rating upgrades, and 6 initial ratings [76]