铜铝周报：铜铝高位振荡，节前谨慎对待-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bullish logic for copper, aluminum, and alumina remains unchanged. However, recently, market funds have become less enthusiastic, and prices may remain in an adjustment phase before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pressure brought by continuously rising inventories. For alumina, its fundamentals maintain an oversupply pattern, and a rebound requires new market drivers [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - Copper: The average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 104,640 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, to 100,100 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026. The futures closing price of the main CU contract dropped from 103,680 yuan/ton to 100,100 yuan/ton. LME copper total inventory increased from 174,975 tons to 183,275 tons [8]. - Aluminum: The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 24,640 yuan/ton to 23,110 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main AL contract fell from 24,560 yuan/ton to 23,315 yuan/ton. LME aluminum total inventory decreased from 495,725 tons to 490,975 tons [8]. - Alumina: The spot price index remained unchanged at 2,646 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main A0 contract increased from 2,768 yuan/ton to 2,824 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly News Review - On February 5, Rio Tinto Group announced the abandonment of merger negotiations with Glencore, causing a world - class mining integration plan worth over $200 billion to end without result [11]. - On February 5, Canadian miner Capstone Copper's largest union at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile approved a new three - year labor contract, ending a strike that lasted over a month [11]. - On February 6, LME's deliverable copper inventory reached an 11 - month high [11]. - On February 9, the upper - limit price fluctuation range and trading margin ratio of copper, aluminum, and other futures contracts will be adjusted [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - On February 5, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. About 85% of surveyed economists believe that interest rates will remain unchanged before 2026 [13]. - Upcoming macro - economic data announcements include China's January M2, M0, M1 money supply year - on - year, social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans; China's January CPI and PPI year - on - year; and the US January unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls change, and CPI year - on - year [14]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - Spot Market: As of February 5, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 4.03% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 62,700 tons year - on - year [30]. - Futures Market: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures positions [20]. - Overseas Market: Data presents the historical trends of LME copper inventory [26]. - Market Inventory: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai bonded area copper inventory, SHFE copper inventory, LME copper inventory, and COMEX copper inventory [26]. - Downstream Consumption: From January 30 to February 5, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week. Due to the copper price limit - down triggering downstream purchasing, orders in the enameled wire and cable industries soared. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will decrease by 13.67 percentage points to 55.4% this week [30]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - Domestic Market: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory [32]. - Futures Market: Data presents the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions [35]. - Overseas Market: Data shows the historical trends of LME aluminum total inventory [38]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of February 5, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Different sub - industries showed different trends [40]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: As of February 5, the SMM ADC12 quotation decreased by 750 yuan/ton week - on - week. Before the Spring Festival, demand and supply will contract simultaneously, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly downward center of gravity [43]. - Cost and Profit: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the relationship with the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [47]. 3.3.3 Alumina - Spot Market: No specific content other than data sources is provided [51]. - Futures Market: No specific content is provided. - Market Supply and Demand: As of February 5, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 91.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.15%. The demand for alumina did not change significantly [56]. - Cost and Profit: As of the week of February 6, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,821.55 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 178.66 yuan/ton [57].