双焦周报：市场情绪转弱，期价宽幅震荡-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal and coke markets experienced a rise followed by a fall. After the first round of price increases, coke enterprises' profits have been restored, and overall production has remained stable. Regional coal mine production has been generally stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, some coal mines have gradually started to shut down for holidays, leading to a contraction in production. Meanwhile, downstream coke enterprises have basically completed their winter storage replenishment, and their purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. On the downstream side, due to poor profit conditions in steel mills and the gradual shutdown of downstream construction sites, steel sales volume has significantly decreased, increasing market supply - demand pressure and slowing down the resumption of hot metal production [2]. - Looking ahead, domestic coal mine production will gradually decline as the holiday approaches, and imported coal is also expected to decline due to the Spring Festival. However, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the fundamentals will remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: This week, the coking coal and coke markets rose first and then fell. Coke enterprises' profits were restored after the first - round price increase, and production was stable. Coal mine production was stable, but some mines shut down for the holiday, reducing output. Downstream coke enterprises' winter storage was basically over, and their purchasing enthusiasm declined. Steel mills had poor profits, construction sites shut down, steel sales decreased, and hot metal production resumed slowly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic coal mine production will decline, and imported coal will also fall during the Spring Festival. There is demand support, and the fundamentals are expected to be healthy. The futures market will fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total coking coal inventory | 10,000 tons | 2399.35 | 2335.53 | 63.82 | 2.73% | Weekly | | Total coke inventory | 10,000 tons | 976.22 | 960.65 | 15.57 | 1.62% | Weekly | | Average daily hot metal production of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 228.58 | 227.98 | 0.6 | 0.26% | Weekly | | Profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises | Yuan/ton | - 10 | - 55 | 45 | - 81.82% | Weekly | [4]